Analysis: Henley's Joy better at Jockey Club Derby's distance

Some horses with a moderate late run at shorter distances will improve while running longer. In Saturday's $1 million Jockey Club Derby Invitational at Belmont Park, Henley's Joy looks like he fits this category, as his best race came when stretching out in the Belmont Derby (G1).

Henley's Joy runs for trainer Michael Maker and gets the services of Jose Lezcano, who first rode Henley's Joy in the Belmont Derby.

Unlike in most of his races, Henley's Joy displayed tactical speed under Lezcano for the first time. Oddly enough, he even broke on the lead.

After the first turn, Moon Colony and Blenheim Palace took over the front. But Henley's Joy kept up well, initially only running 2 ½ lengths behind. In his other races, Henley's Joy ran from the back of the pack. But the slow pace of a longer distance possibly made it easier for him to show speed. 

From there, Henley's Joy stayed inside in third and let Moon Colony and Blenheim Palace tire themselves out. When the time came approaching the far turn, Henley's Joy moved up along the inside and switched out. 

He then mowed down Social Paranoia and won by ¾ of a length. 

Henley's Joy did receive some good breaks while saving ground. But considering he is in Post 3 in the Jockey Club Derby, he might get the same sort of inside-out trip. The rail horse A Thread of Blue will shoot for the lead and the Post 2 entry Current should fall back early, leaving room on the inside.

As for Henley's Joy's fifth-place finish in the Saratoga Derby, that is forgivable given the shorter distance and farther-back early positioning. He did make up ground, closing from seven lengths behind to 4 ¼ lengths.

If Henley's Joy saves ground and shows tactical speed in the same fashion as the Belmont Derby, he will prove difficult to beat Saturday.

Close behind him in this analysis is Tone Broke, who won at 1 ½ miles in Woodbine's Breeders' Stakes, the final leg of the Canadian Triple Crown.

Tone Broke encountered some trouble in this race, taking up at one point before the first turn. Around the far turn, he failed to find room and switched out. Once he got in the clear, he mowed down Avie's Flatter.

Of course, the Breeders' Stakes is limited to Canadian-breds. But Tone Broke did run a nice race in the Sir Barton Stakes at Pimlico to finish second to King for a Day, albeit on dirt. He also ran fourth in the Springboard Mile.

Forget the low 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned at Woodbine, as turf figures can prove misleading because of the nature of those races. If it rains, the soft ground will not hurt either as he won over a yielding course.

Tone Broke might offer good value, too. Both he and Henley's Joy will provide a nice 1-2 punch to A Thread of Blue approaching the far turn.

But there is also a chance A Thread of Blue will get too comfortable on the lead and slip away with the win as he did in the Saratoga Derby.

A Thread of Blue's previous races came at one mile to 1 1/16 miles, making him a bit of a wildcard at 1 1/2 miles. In terms of pedigree, it should not pose a problem for a Hard Spun colt out of a Seeking the Gold mare. Furthermore, he is the only true pacesetter in this race.

But he needs to prove himself at this distance. Because of that, A Thread of Blue is my third or fourth preference.

Out of the European invaders, the only one with an apparent chance is Spanish Mission, who comes off a nice third-place effort in the Qatar Gordon (G3).

Notice how Spanish Mission broke poorly and started from the back. 

But as the horses ran up the hill, Spanish Mission made a mid-race move and gets into a better position in fourth. He ran in the pocket before switching out for the stretch run and closing the gap to a neck. 

Nayef Road won the Qatar Gordon, while Constantinople finished second.

Both of those horses came back to run in the Voltigeur Stakes (G2) with Constantinople finishing second. Norway ran third in the same race, and earlier in the summer Norway also ran third in the Irish Derby (G1).

Furthermore, Spanish Mission won the Bahrain Trophy (G3) two starts back. This is a Group 2 or 3-type horse in Europe, which is good enough to win against this group at Belmont.

Digital Age and Current are best used underneath, with the former displaying clear distance limitations. But either of them could logically hit he board.

Henley's Joy, Tone Broke, A Thread of Blue and Constantinople are the best options for the win spot. As for which ones get played on top, consult the tote board, as this seems like a tough one to predict in terms of public opinion.

In all likelihood, Henley's Joy won't go so low as to not make him worth a play.