Analysis: Halladay can upset Fourstardave Handicap
On turf, bettors do not use the lone speed angle as often as in dirt races. But in the Grade 1, $400,000 Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga on Saturday, this is an angle to think about, as the one-mile race features only one true pacesetter in Halladay.
Last year, Halladay had competed as an undeveloped 3-year-old who broke his maiden only last summer and ran in allowance and ungraded stakes races for Todd Pletcher. In this campaign, though, Halladay developed into a high-level runner capable of defeating good horses.
For example, two starts ago in the Sunshine Forever Stakes at Gulfstream, Halladay beat a couple of graded stakes horses and a future Grade 1 winner. The key is that Halladay needs the lead. If he secures the front, he can win against high-level horses.
After an awkward start, watch Luis Saez urge Halladay to the front.
Halladay recovers from the slow start and finds himself in front, securing about a length cushion in front of El Tormenta in second and Admission Office.
From there, Halladay maintains the advantage through 23.71 and 47 flat fractions.
On the turn, Admission Office begins to fade slightly, as does El Tormenta. Neither of them fall completely out of the picture, but they no longer remain a threat.
Halladay then needs to deal with Aquaphobia on the outside, and he never lets Aquaphobia within less than a length of him. Whenever a speed horses turns away the other nearby speed on the turn and then holds off a formidable closer late, it is a great sign. Two starts later, Aquaphobia won the United Nations Stakes (G1) at Monmouth.
Besides Aquaphobia, Halladay also beat Social Paranoia in third and Admission Office in fourth, who resurged late after dropping out as a win contender. Social Paranoia went on to capture the Poker Stakes (G3) at Belmont over Seismic Wave and Value Proposition, while Admission Office won the Louisville Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs over Arklow.
Halladay did not officially win a graded stakes, but the horses he defeated in the Sunshine Forever were no pushovers and had class.
In Halladay’s next start in the Bernard Baruch Stakes (G2), Somelikeithotbrown went to the front and Saez chose not to urge Halladay to engage.
As expected when a good speed horse is left alone, Somelikeithotbrown controlled the race from start to finish. With no pressure from Halladay, Somelikeithotbrown coasted up front through sluggish 24.79, 49.08 and 1:12.43 fractions for the 1 1/16-mile race. Halladay tried a brief challenge on the turn, but Somelikeithotbrown repelled him and then held off late bids from Mr Dumas and Good Governance as well.
Halladay faded a bit to fourth, and that is fine. He needed the lead for his best, but Somelikeithotbrown took his preferred position without a fight.
Can Halladay secure the lead in the Fourstardave? Yes.
For one, Saez is likely to become more aggressive
Besides that, who is going to challenge Halladay? The only other horse capable of pressing is Got Stormy, and even that is pushing her style. She usually wants to give a length or two if it is a normal pace, and concede even more lengths in a hot pace.
Assuming Got Stormy does get assertive and presses Halladay, it might not matter. The 5-year-old mare is off form with four straight losses.
Got Stormy wants one mile, and two of those losses came at 1 1/16 miles in the Endeavour Stakes (G3) and Beaugay Stakes (G3). But in the latter race, she faded at an alarming rate to fourth by six lengths.
Three starts ago in the one-mile Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1) at Santa Anita, Got Stormy led on the turn and gave it up to River Boyne. While she held second in a Grade 1, losing to River Boyne felt disappointing. One start later in the one-mile Poker Stakes (G3), she took over the lead on the turn and then faded to fourth again with zero excuse.
Got Stormy loses with both the distance and pace advantage on her side. Halladay may handle Got Stormy with no problem if he receives pressure. After all, this is an improving 4-year-old colt on the upswing.
In all likelihood, Halladay will get his one- or two-length advantage anyway, as Got Stormy prefers to give space to the pacesetter. Then, Halladay will put Got Stormy away and face the closers.
Raging Bull, Without Parole and Uni are the three closers Halladay needs to worry about. None of them are perfect, even if Chad Brown trains them all.
Look at the number of wins between Raging Bull and Without Parole. In his last seven starts, Raging Bull owns only one win, in the Shoemaker Mile (G1). One start after that victory, he lost to War of Will in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) at Keeneland, and did not outkick Parlor for second. As for Without Parole, he is winless in four starts on North American soil.
Perhaps that is unfair both horses. Raging Bull and Without Parole both own great efforts at the Grade 1 level. Regardless, their ROI in terms of win bets looks terrible.
Uni finished third in this race last year and is the reigning Breeders’ Cup Mile champion. But her return effort in the Just a Game Stakes (G1) appears kind of flat. Even if Newspaperofrecord was not going to lose, Beau Recall beat Uni for second with no excuse other than the layoff.
Raging Bull, Without Parole and Uni can win at short prices, but the betting value is in Halladay, who figures to control the race and offer enough late to hold off stalkers and closers. He is imperfect in his need for the lead, but the setup on paper says he gets the lead. Give Halladay a chance, and use the Chad Brown trio as backup options.