Analysis: Gouverneur Morris gets the Breeders' Futurity nod

Choosing between Tap It To Win and Gouverneur Morris in the Grade 1, $500,000 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland on Saturday is a difficult task for this handicapper. Both horses broke their maidens at Saratoga in impressive manners while sprinting, and now they're stretching out to route.

In the end, Gouverneur Morris gets the slight nod. Some big names are behind this colt, including trainer Todd Pletcher and owners Team Valor International and WinStar Farm. He cost the connections $600,000.

Gouverneur Morris backed up the sales price by winning his first race by nine lengths at 5 ½ furlongs in the slop on closing day at the Spa.

Gouverneur Morris settled in third, right behind the two leaders Maximiliano and Secret Files. The pacesetters opened in 22.38 and 45.98, which TimeformUS labels as slow.

On the turn, Gouverneur Morris circled those two horses and coasted clear with only a hand ride needed by John Velazquez.

TimeformUS awarded Gouverneur Morris a 96 speed figure, while Beyer gave an 83.

From a pedigree standpoint, Gouverneur Morris shows route influences on both sides. His hot first-crop sire, Constitution, won the 2014 Florida Derby (G1). On the bottom side, the second dam Fleet and Fancy is a half-sister to Fast Cookie and Midshipman. The former went on to produce graded stakes-winning router Frosted, while the latter won the 2008 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

On paper, Gouverneur Morris will handle the route, although it is still a question until the horse proves it on the track.

As for Tap It To Win, Mark Casse trains this ridgling owned by Live Oak Plantation.

Tap It To Win ran twice, with his first start at Woodbine. In that six-furlong turf race, he set the pace before fading to second, three lengths behind.

Switching to dirt helped Tap It To Win move forward. Running on Saratoga's Travers Stakes day undercard, Tap It To Win chased the leader along the inside through 22.32 and 45.33 fractions. TimeformUS labels those splits as fast.

On the turn, the rail opened up, and Tap It To Win moved to the lead. He pulled clear by 3 ½ lengths with a few strikes from Tyler Gaffalione.

For the win, TimeformUS gave a 110, while Beyer awarded an 86. But it is fair to note TimeformUS upgraded Tap It To Win's figure by five points given the fast pace, and there is a 20-point scale difference.

In other words, Tap It To Win ran roughly the same figure from both makers.

Also notable is that Tap It To Win won on a deal rail. Later in the card, big names such as Promises Fulfilled and Separationofpowers completely folded along the rail, while Shancelot faded slightly to third at miniscule 1/5 odds.

Yet, the rail proved no problem for Tap It To Win.

From a pedigree standpoint, Tap it To Win is supposed to handle 1 1/16 miles. But there are some small concerns on his bottom side.

Tap It To Win's second dam, Beaties for Real, is a full-sister to Slick Lady, whose seven career wins all came in sprint races. Their sire, Unreal Zeal, ran as a sprinter too, winning the 1984 Fall Festival Sprint Championship.

But to counter those facts, Beaties for Real is also a half-sister to Ivanavinalot, the dam of Songbird.

Regardless, both Gouverneur Morris and Tap It To Win are top contenders in the Breeders' Futurity. But Gouverneur Morris also drew better, as he could stalk or press from the outside post. Tap It To Win drew the rail and might feel pressure.

Two alternatives to those options are Enforceable and Ajaaweed. Casse also trains the former, while Kiaran McLaughlin conditions the latter.

Enforceable broke his maiden in a rare nine-furlong Saratoga maiden, winning by ¾ of a length in a hard-fought win over Mo and Go.

His pedigree is a royal one as well. Enforceable's full brother Mohaymen won the 2015 Remsen Stakes (G2), 2016 Holy Bull Stakes (G2) and Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). Later on, he ran fourth in the 2016 Kentucky Derby.

Enforceable is also a half-brother to New Year's Day, the 2013 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner. No wonder he handled a route so well.

The morning line lists Enforceable at 30-1. That sounds high for a two-turn winner at this time of the year.

Ajaaweed broke his maiden in a one-turn mile at Belmont, closing from fifth to pull clear by 4 ¼ lengths over Forza Di Oro and Starting Over.

Ajaaweed's sire, Curlin, is an obvious route influence. Although Ajaaweed's bottom side tilts towards sprint, the 1 1/16-mile distance should be fine.

January Won also deserves mention as a plodder who might pick up third or fourth in this spot. In the Iroquois Stakes (G2) at Churchill, he came from 14 lengths back to finish sixth, albeit still 9 ¾ lengths behind a geared-down Dennis' Moment.

January Won is still plenty eligible to move forward.

But none of those alternatives are as exciting as Gouverneur Morris and Tap It To Win. These two 2-year-olds hold the potential to become major players in this talented and deep crop. The others do not give the same impression.

As stated, Gouverneur Morris is the slight preference. Both horses are As in horizontals, with Enforceable and Ajaaweed worthy B options.