Analysis: Improbable holds early San Felipe Stakes edge

As revealed earlier this week by the Daily Racing Form, trainer Bob Baffert is planning to send both Game Winner and Improbable to the Grade 2, $500,000 San Felipe Stakes on March 9 at Santa Anita for their season debuts. If those two runners plus the elusive Jerry Hollendorfer-trained Instagrand all start, it will mark the premier prep race of the 2019 Kentucky Derby trail season so far.

“I have a feeling they’ll both be there,” Baffert told DRF’s Jay Privman. “It might be Clemson vs. Alabama.”

Will all three stars in the 3-year-old division really show up in an early March prep race together, rather than wait until the last prep or the Kentucky Derby?

Of course, there's the theory that Baffert hopes Instagrand’s connections will skip the San Felipe by suggesting both of his horses may show up in the same race. Then once it is clear Instagrand will aim for another race, then Baffert can reroute either Game Winner or Improbable to the March 16 Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park.

It was assumed through the winter Improbable would take the Arkansas route. But from studying their work tab spacing and videos published by XBTV, Game Winner and Improbable do not appear on the same page in their training. On paper, Improbable shows a consistent work tab and looks ready at any moment, while Game Winner might benefit from one more week of training before his first race back.   

Game Winner returned to the work tab on Jan. 9 after capturing the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in early November, remaining in light training afterward. His other two works last month came on Jan. 20 and 30, meaning it took 11 and 10 days between both. Granted, the rainy season at Santa Anita played into one of those delays.

Assuming there is nothing physically wrong, most top horses take about six to eight days between each work. Throughout Game Winner’s 2-year-old season, that is roughly the sort of schedule he kept. Generally, healthy horses do.

Nine days following his last January work, Game Winner showed up on Feb. 8 in company with stablemate Speed Freak, and in my opinion, he did not look right in the stretch. The most visible miscue came when he switched to his wrong lead before the wire.

“He got a little tired at the end,” Baffert said of that breeze. “He’s supposed to get tired.”

Perhaps Game Winner took it easy throughout January, and then Baffert decided to give him a “real” workout in company to start off his February training.

Baffert also tightened up the intervals between each work, wheeling him back on Feb. 13 and 20. He paired Game Winner with the established older horse, Dr. Dorr, as well.  

Game Winner looked a little better in those spins, but is he ready for a difficult race in less than two weeks? For 2019, he only shows six overall workouts, with the first three last month looking more like maintenance breezes rather than serious drills.

In contrast, Improbable took less than one month off after winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) on Dec. 8 by returning to the work tab on Jan. 9 as well. Unlike Game Winner, Improbable went on a more frequent schedule once he returned, posting three more workouts in January and four works in February, giving him eight drills in total.

Improbable appears to work alone. It is possible Baffert does not wish to discourage his horses by pairing them with such a talent.

Regardless, if there is one notable feature about Improbable’s works, he appears to glide over the racetrack. His leg action is closer to a finely tuned machine.

With two more workouts than Game Winner in tow already and no visible problems in the morning, Improbable seems set to run sooner than later.

As for Instagrand, the most recent workout video of him is interesting as it shows the Into Mischief colt coming from behind in company with stablemates Shining Through and Why Not Us. The latter workmate lost a maiden claimer in January.

Instagrand came up the inside on the turn, and he and Shining Through put away the outclassed Why Not Us in the stretch run. Visually, it was a good work for Instagrand, as Shining Through’s rider asked him for a bit more and he could only nudge forward.

After winning the Best Pal Stakes (G2) on Aug. 11, Instagrand worked two more times before going on the shelf. He returned to the work tab on Dec. 30 and began working every six to nine days, matching Improbable with eight works recorded since then. 

Instagrand appears ready. But I believe there is weight to the theory his connections may want to find an easier return spot after hearing the news of both Game Winner and Improbable pointing to the San Felipe. Owner Larry Best is susceptible to changing his mind. 

Over the weekend, before Baffert's news, Hollendorfer said the San Felipe is “not written in stone” and that “we’re nominated to every race in the country.”  

Also keep in mind that Instagrand’s connections already balked on the San Vicente Stakes (G2) last month. His plans always seem shrouded in secrecy compared to others -- not a good sign for those who have backed Instagrand in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

Mind games are rampant when it comes to Derby trail prep races. If I had to guess, expect Improbable will run in the San Felipe and Game Winner will benefit from the extra week and join Mucho Gusto in the Rebel Stakes. As for Instagrand, the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct runs the same day as the San Felipe around one turn. It presents an option for a horse that hasn't run farther than six furlongs.

Wherever these three Derby candidates go, they'd better get going soon.