Analysis: This recent G3 winner might not be worth Travers bet

After First Captain’s win in the Dwyer Stakes (G3) Monday at Belmont, the natural question that came up is whether he also can take the Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga in August. Is it too soon to expect the son of Curlin to win that type of race?

From a betting perspective, it is hard to trust First Captain if he competes in the Travers. Even though trainer Shug McGaughey sent Code of Honor to win both the Dwyer and Travers (G1) in 2019, there is a significant difference between him and First Captain.

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Code of Honor had the benefit of running on the Derby trail three times, with one of those starts a win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream. He also was fourth in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes and third in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1). After the trail, Code of Honor then ran second by disqualification in the Kentucky Derby when the stewards took Maximum Security down after an inquiry.

As a 2-year-old, Code of Honor started twice. He broke his maiden at Saratoga before running second in the Champagne Stakes (G1) after an early stumble.

Through all those races as a 2-year-old and 3-year-old in the spring, Code of Honor built a solid foundation for 1 1/4 miles against a large group quality horses in the Travers at Saratoga. After gaining graded-stakes experience as a juvenile, enduring the long Derby trail and picking up a runner-up finish in the Kentucky Derby, Code of Honor went into the Dwyer and Travers as a mature and seasoned 3-year-old.

In contrast, First Captain has almost no foundation.

Before the Dwyer, First Captain broke his maiden in a seven-furlong sprint at Belmont before winning a one-mile allowance race over slop. Code of Honor ran six times before the Dwyer, with four of those starts in graded-stakes races. First Captain won two local one-turn races at Belmont against maidens and allowance types.

Granted, First Captain won the Dwyer in a professional fashion that indicates he knows his task. After settling in fourth early in the five-horse field, First Captain gradually made his way forward and swung outside horses. He then went past Snow House and Ridin With Biden.

First Captain did not exactly set a trail of fire behind him. Rather, he kept responding and made a slow, continual progression.

Perhaps the one-mile distance made First Captain’s bid appear kind of boring.

In most one-turn miles at the graded-stakes level, horses need a quick turn of foot to compete against quality milers. First Captain did not show any flash to his move, but he also had the benefit of beating a subpar field who gave in anyway to his grinding style of running.   

With that said, First Captain made a good impression overall. From a visual standpoint, it felt like he had plenty left in the tank. 

First Captain is likely to thrive at longer routes, but he might still need to work up toward the Travers distance rather than go from one mile to 1 1/4 miles. Horses cannot compete at 1 1/4 miles right away without proper conditioning, especially not at the Grade 1 level.  

If the connections do point for the Travers, First Captain would benefit greatly from one more prep race to give him a stepping stone to 1 1/4 miles. Another prep race could give him more experience in taking dirt, bumping with other horses or handling traffic problems.

On July 31, Saratoga runs the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2), the track’s local prep for the Travers. McGaughey is quoted in the NYRA stakes recap as saying, “We’ll take a look at it.”

Perhaps First Captain’s chances to win the Travers move up if he competes in the Jim Dandy and runs well. The Jim Dandy does not replace the foundation of a 2-year-old campaign or competing on the difficult Derby trail as a 3-year-old. Regardless, he would learn something from the prep race and bettors would get a better read.

But if the connections point First Captain toward the Travers without one more prep race, then he becomes a play-against for bettors, assuming he would even take significant money with his low speed figures and lack of a foundation. First Captain might still start at an underlaid price, as McGaughey's name alone tends to attract bettors.

As likable as First Captain is from a fan standpoint, it is important to use caution before playing an inexperienced runner in a 1 1/4-mile Grade 1 race. Keep these points in mind when it comes time to handicap the Travers in late August.