Analysis: 1 horse holds class edge for Monday's Dwyer

With only five horses in the Grade 3, $250,000 Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park on Monday and a couple entries with no hope, there are not many value options to choose. In all likelihood, bettors need to accept a low price in this race and move on.  

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Without seeing the morning line yet, the public will likely favor either the expensive Shug McGaughey-trained First Captain, who cost $1.5 million as a yearling, or the Brad Cox-trained Snow House, who owns two dirt wins in three starts. Snow House’s only loss came on turf.

First Captain is the preferred option because of his speed figures and the company he kept during his local maiden and allowance wins.

The son of Curlin broke his maiden April 24 in a seven-furlong sprint with a 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He beat some good horses.

The second-place finisher Mahaamel went on to break his maiden impressively in his next start by 3¼ lengths June 4 with a 115 on TimeformUS. As for the third-place Repo Rocks, he eventually broke his maiden two starts later June 25.

In First Captain’s next start May 29, he won a one-mile allowance race with a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The only horse to start again from that race has been the third-place Dust Devil, who ran third in a local June 19 allowance race with a 111 on TimeformUS after earning only a 103 against First Captain on May 29. Although Dust Devil did not win his next start, it is a good sign his speed figure went up.

Both of First Captain’s two races were open to older horses.

Now to analyze Snow House’s maiden and optional claiming wins.

Snow House broke his maiden at Keeneland on April 21 with a 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure. All five horses who ran behind Snow House in that Keeneland maiden race ran twice since then, and none of them broke their maidens. That is a red flag.

About one month later, Snow House won a May 29 optional claiming race at Churchill Downs by ¾ of a length with a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure. While the 109 on TimeformUS sounds nice, it is concerning that the runner-up Wayakin had previously run in two straight starter allowance races and broke his maiden in a $50,000 claimer at Oaklawn. Also, the fourth-place Tycoon went on to run a well-beaten sixth by 9¼ lengths in a June 26 optional claiming race at Churchill Downs.

Furthermore, Snow House ran against 3-year-olds in both dirt starts, while First Captain had defeated older horses with TimeformUS figures not far off Snow House's 109. In other words, First Captain ran against better horses with a high speed figure that is only two points lesser than him, and two points is practically negligible when it comes to figures.   

A small argument could also be made for Gershwin, who won an off-the-turf version of the Penn Mile (G3). He did not exactly beat a great field in that race, but the fact that he owns a graded win is notable.

Gershwin’s best efforts all came in off-the-turf races on wet dirt. He broke his maiden on the mud and ran second in an April 24 Churchill Downs allowance race over the slop.

If Gershwin competes in the Dwyer (he is also entered in Saturday's Kent Stakes (G3) at Delaware), watch the weather forecast.

As for Civil War and Ridin With Biden, both horses appear overmatched.

First Captain is the top choice and a fair win bet at 7-5 or higher. If bettors need a second horse for multi-race wagers, then think about using Snow House as well based on the high TimeformUS figure and high-percentage Cox as the trainer. On paper though, it does seem like First Captain holds the edge in terms of overall company kept.