Analysis: How pace played into Kentucky Derby trail results

Beyer Speed Figures are controversial at times, especially when pace is involved. For example, during the legendary Zenyatta’s career, it was clear some of her speed figures were depressed because of slow fractions. The final speed figure tends to be slow if the field wastes the first half of the race crawling.  

But sometimes, the final figure is adjusted for pace. When is it adjusted for pace? It is hard to tell, because there is no designation in the Daily Racing Form to note a controversial speed figure. 

With the above points in mind, here is a recap of the weekend's 2018 Kentucky Derby preps.

Firenze Fire won the $150,000 Jerome Stakes over the weekend, and it seemed as if TimeformUS and the Daily Racing Form differed on the speed figure. TimeformUS gave a 99, which equals roughly a 79 in Beyer Speed Figure terms. Meanwhile, the Beyer number for Firenze Fire initially came up as a 90. 

So, what happened in the Jerome? 

As a closer, Firenze Fire chased down very slow fractions set up by Seven Trumpets. Because of the small field and a key scratch in Old Time Revival, Seven Trumpets enjoyed a 25.01 opening quarter and a 50.81 first half. With a messy track, it can be hard to tell how fast or slow horses are going. But even if the pace is a smidge faster than how the fractions appear, it was clear Seven Trumpets had a leisurely time.  

Firenze Fire needed to get moving on the far turn, as Seven Trumpets looked good. For a few moments in the lane, it felt like Firenze Fire might not rally in time. But after some hard urging from jockey Manny Franco, Firenze Fire found enough run to mow his opponent down and score one for chalk players. 

Seven Trumpets, while an interesting horse with room to improve, cannot exactly be called top-class competition. He only came off a decent win in an optional claiming race at Churchill Downs. 

Still, Firenze Fire overcame pace adversity, and that is always a plus on the Derby trail. 

The preliminary 90 Beyer Speed Figure was likely an adjustment for the sluggish pace. The 85 might still be partially adjusted for pace as well. Whether the “correct” number is 90, 85 or 79, just know that Firenze Fire ran better than any final number shows.  

For the Grade 3, $200,000 LeComte Stakes won by Instilled Regard, the pace appeared moderate to fast. 

Believe in Royalty decided to whip through opening fractions of 23.48 and 47.52, and it apparently took its toll as he faded to last. But Snapper Sinclair chased him and ran well, fighting until the end for third.  

Eventual winner Instilled Regard stalked from fourth after a half mile. He made a good move while a bit wide on the far turn, then proved the best in the lane under mild urging. This is an exciting horse. 

Not only can Instilled Regard run, but he is under the care of a “good-guy” trainer in Jerry Hollendorfer and comes from a blue-blooded family. His second dam is multiple graded stakes winner Heavenly Prize. 

Instilled Regard’s fanbase will increase sharply as the weeks go by.

Principe Guilherme can be forgiven for not catching Instilled Regard. He broke from a poor outside post position in a two-turn race, and lost a ton of ground. Unless the fractions are slow, it is tough to go four wide or higher on the first turn. This Tapit colt has talent, and will be heard from again on the trail. 

Mourinho answered a big question in the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes: Yes, he can go two turns.

But, if a hole can be poked in Mourinho’s two-turn debut, he won by leading through a slow pace. Without reading any pace figures, a 48.09 half for a one-mile race is slow. TimeformUS awarded a 116, but it is an adjusted figure for the slow pace. Without the adjustment, it would be a 122. 

In other words, Combatant did not run so bad for second. He faced a tall order by the far turn, as Mourinho seemed to draw clear. Combatant kept the final margin to a little over three lengths, and should be considered a major contender on the trail moving forward for trainer Steve Asmussen.

Overall, it was a good weekend of racing. All three prep races revealed at least one promising horse or more for the trail. The waters become deeper though, and it will be exciting to see how they develop.