Analysis: Firenze Fire poised to run his best in Met Mile

One of the oldest handicapping angles is looking for horses making their third start off the layoff, especially for stakes runners with proven talent. The first start back acts as a warmup, the second start is more serious, and the third start is the best one, as the thinking goes.

In the Grade 1, $1.2 million Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont Park on Saturday, there are a couple of horses who fit this angle, including Thunder Snow, Tale of Silence, Promises Fulfilled and Pavel. But the most interesting horse making his third start off the layoff is Firenze Fire, who has delivered a big race on this course and at the distance.

Firenze Fire arguably turns into another horse at Belmont, with wins in the 2017 Champagne Stakes (G1), 2018 Dwyer Stakes (G3) and the recent victory in the Runhappy Stakes. In the Dwyer, Firenze Fire earned a whopping 126 figure from TimeformUS.

Needless to say, he was unstoppable in that race.

It did not matter that Noble Indy and Mendelssohn set the table by contesting the lead. Firenze Fire ran like a machine in the stretch.

He looked like a different Firenze Fire compared to the one that ran at longer distances on the Kentucky Derby trail. Even throwing out the 10-furlong Derby, Firenze Fire had run a distant fourth in the Wood Memorial (G2) and Gotham Stakes (G3).

Yet in the Dwyer, Firenze Fire turned into a top horse. This year, he's cycling back into that form.

On March 31, Firenze Fire started off his campaign by disappointing bettors with a flat third in the Zaxby's Sprint at Tampa Bay Downs, earning a lowly 102 on TimeformUS. The effort was subpar, but perhaps trainer Jason Servis did not seek to win the race. Some conditioners use the first start back merely as a workout.

One and a half months later, Firenze Fire put in a much better performance in the Runhappy, drafting in behind the leaders and tipping out to win.

Firenze Fire beat at least one notable name in Recruiting Ready. Also, TimeformUS awarded a 119 for the improved effort, 17 points better than his last race.

Is another jump forward coming in the Met Mile? I'll be on it. While Firenze Fire needs to move forward 5-10 points, the feeling is Servis will get him there.

Thunder Snow is the other interesting horse from the list, as he looked like a shell of his 2018 form when returning in Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3.

Capezzano dominated the field, while Thunder Snow finished a distant second.

Trainer Saeed bin Suroor undertrained Thunder Snow for the race and probably did not care if he won or lost. He only wanted to get a race in.

Thunder Snow rebounded with a narrow win in the Dubai World Cup over Gronkowski, with Gunnevera over two lengths back in third.

Now, Thunder Snow did not face the strongest Dubai World Cup field. The race lost some luster in recent years with the Pegasus World Cup (G1) also an option to open the year. But Thunder Snow did run an improved race over his last.

Plus, Thunder Snow’s class on this soil is proven, as he ran an excellent second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last fall. He only got tired late in each of those races because of the pace.

Thunder Snow is set to fire his best race and might even hold at 5-1.

As for underneath longshots, Tale of Silence and Pavel are interesting. The former finished second to Prince Lucky in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2), but Prince Lucky enjoyed a slow pace and speed-biased dirt course.

Tale of Silence can run better than he did.

Pavel enters this race off a fourth in the Dubai World Cup, in which he made a mild late move and closed to within less than four lengths. He ran decent.

Two races ago, Pavel disappointed in the San Pasqual Stakes (G2) by running a distant fourth, more than 10 lengths behind Battle of Midway and McKinzie. But he ran over a sloppy Santa Anita track, which gives an excuse.

Tale of Silence and Pavel are slow horses on paper. In this kind of race, though, they only need to pick off tired horses after the speed gets burned.

Promises Fulfilled makes his third start off the bench, but I've lost faith in him after consecutive losses. If used at all, he will be limited underneath.

What about Coal Front, McKinzie and Mitole?

Coal Front and Mitole are likely to get burned on the pace, while McKinzie will become underlaid as the big name in this field. McKinzie looks usable in horizontal wagers, but it makes sense to take shots against him vertically.

Prince Lucky, the last to mention, and appears overmatched and at half the price of Tale of Silence.

Firenze Fire looks poised to fire his best race for Servis, and anything resembling the machine-like horse who won the Dwyer powerfully last year will win in this spot. He rates as the top selection, while Thunder Snow, Tale of Silence and Pavel are underneath options, with Promises Fulfilled a lesser option.

As always, it is better to study the live exacta payouts first before deciding on the second slot. Either way, Firenze Fire is the key.