Rebel analysis: Finding value underneath Newgrange
Newgrange makes his second trip to Oaklawn Park for the Grade 2, $1 million Rebel Stakes on Saturday. Considering his undefeated record and trainer Bob Baffert at the helm, Newgrange seems certain to fall lower than his listed 9-5 morning-line odds. Perhaps even money is more realistic.
Even if his odds fall to even money, Newgrange is arguably fair value. Remember that fair value equals getting the proper odds in relation to form. If the form clicks all the boxes, low odds can be acceptable.
In addition to breaking his maiden at Santa Anita, Newgrange won the Sham Stakes (G3) by 2 3/4 lengths in his second start. Baffert then chose to ship him to this track, where he won the Southwest Stakes (G3) by 1 1/2 lengths. Those two races give Newgrange the class advantage, as he stands as the only graded-stakes winner in the 11-horse field.
Newgrange also earned a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure for winning the Southwest Stakes and 109 for the Sham, giving him the top two figures. Using BRIS, Newgrange also posted field-high speed ratings of 94 and 98. He owns the speed figure advantage as well on multiple brands.
From a tactical standpoint, Newgrange either can set the pace, as he did in his Sham win, or settle and stalk off a contested pace, as shown in the local Southwest when Kavod and Classic Moment went fast early.
His versatility gives him another great advantage.
Plus, Baffert usually sends his good 3-year-olds to Oaklawn. Concert Tour did not deliver in the long run, but Baffert thought highly of him last spring. Before his loss in the Arkansas Derby (G1), most horse players pointed to Concert Tour as the top Derby hope for Baffert.
Newgrange is the single in this year's Rebel.
For a runner-up option, consider Chasing Time, who made his two-turn debut a successful one in a local Jan. 14 optional claiming race. After tracking the lead, he took over and drew clear to win by 7 3/4 lengths. From a visual standpoint, he ran like a different colt than in his sprint efforts at six furlongs. He might take another step forward here.
Another value option for second is Stellar Tap, who had a useful prep race at Fair Grounds on Jan. 22 in an optional claiming race. After stalking the pace, he had traffic problems when attempting to tip out at the top of the stretch. Toward the wire, Stellar Tap was making up ground on the runner-up Kevin’s Folly.
Both of those runners will need to outfoot Barber Road, who has run second in both the Smarty Jones Stakes and Southwest. In both situations, he had a nice pace to close into. In this situation, the expected pacesetter Kavod might not run as fast in the first half-mile without Classic Moment’s early pressure. According to TimeformUS Pace Projector though, the pace is red and expected to go fast.
Trifecta players might also want to include Kavod. While it looks like he wanted to quit in mid-stretch, Kavod took up the dirty work in the Southwest by setting a fast pace with pressure from Classic Moment before fading late to fourth. Because of the fast pace he set, Kavod still shows a 108 on TimeformUS because they gave him pace credit.
Ben Diesel deserves respect too after looming on the far turn of the Southwest and doing enough to finish third. Considering he ran only a few lengths off the fast pace early on, it is understandable he became hung a bit in the lane and failed to match Newgrange and Barber Road.
Finally, Ethereal Road could build on his local maiden win on Jan. 29. From 16 lengths behind, he made a huge rally to win by four lengths.
Otherwise, Newgrange works as a single option in horizontal wagers. If playing the race alone, this blog prefers an exacta more than a trifecta.
While the probable low price on Newgrange is not ideal, he clicks all the checkmarks in terms of overall form and Baffert must respect this colt’s ability if he keeps sending him to Oaklawn. Expect Newgrange to sit right off Kavod in the first half of the race and take over at the right time.
Win: 2 (at even money or higher)
Exacta: 2 / 6,8