Analysis: Finding the right value in 2022 Dubai World Cup

With four quality American horses set to compete in the $12 million Dubai World Cup at Meydan, it is hard to imagine a runner from another country prevailing on Saturday. The top spot comes down to the expected favorite Life Is Good, Hot Rod Charlie, Country Grammer and Midnight Bourbon.

Two of the four American options are playable for a simple win bet.   

Even though Midnight Bourbon is fast enough to win, betting him to win is not the best idea considering his 10-race losing streak. He shows runner-up finishes in big dirt races such as the Preakness Stakes, Travers Stakes (G1) and Pennsylvania Derby (G1). His recent third-place finish in the Saudi Cup is also counts as another huge effort. Yet he lacks the winning spirit in the stretch, at least at this point in the year.

Life Is Good carries a three-race win streak into this race, including two Grade 1 races. Last fall, he won the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Del Mar by 5 3/4 lengths with ease after setting the pace. This year, Life Is Good took the Pegasus World Cup (G1) at Gulfstream in pacesetting fashion again by 3 1/4 lengths.

Almost every casual bettor respects Life Is Good by this point, though. In European wagering, his current odds fall below even money on all of the platforms available. If he starts at less than even money for bettors in North America, those odds might feel short, considering he lacks experience at 1 1/4 miles and faces other quality American competition.

Hot Rod Charlie brings successful local experience into this race after capturing Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (G2) by 5 1/4 lengths.

Last September, Hot Rod Charlie won the Pennsylvania Derby by 2 1/4 lengths over Midnight Bourbon after some controversy when he blew the turn and carried out his opponent. Hot Rod Charlie than ran a mild fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic behind Knicks Go, Medina Spirit and Essential Quality, before finishing second by a nose to Express Train in the San Antonio Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita to finish his 3-year-old season.  

Overseas, Hot Rod Charlie is trading around 3-1 to 7-2. Those odds might be fair, but there is a higher value option with a similar chance to win.

Country Grammer exits a runner-up finish in the Saudi Cup, and he might contend again for the win if he repeats the effort this week at Meydan.

In the Saudi Cup, Country Grammer took up the pocket position in the early stages. After tipping out for the stretch, Country Grammer went to battle with Midnight Bourbon, who is actually a fast horse even if he keeps losing races. Country Grammer held off Midnight Bourbon, but Emblem Road ran them both down in the stretch for the upset victory.

Is it embarrassing to lose to a long shot such as Emblem Road?

Although unknown to racing fans here, Emblem Road sports a blue-blood American pedigree as a son of Quality Road and grandson of the great Ventura through his dam line. Ventura won the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint and also ran second in the 2009 Filly & Mare Sprint. 

Country Grammer probably lost to a good horse who happens to make his home in Saudi Arabia. Despite the loss, it remains a positive that Country Grammer still beat Midnight Bourbon for second, as well as the 2021 Kentucky Derby champion Mandaloun (who folded into the pack).

Last May, Country Grammer also won the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1), which answers the 1 1/4-mile distance question. Note the third-place finisher Express Train. In recent times, Express Train has become a machine and recently won the Santa Anita Handicap (G1).

Country Grammer is trading around 8-1 to 10-1 in the United Kingdom.

If Country Grammer starts in the Dubai World Cup at 8-1 or higher for North America, he will offer value odds relative to Life Is Good and Hot Rod Charlie. The difference in ability between the three stars is not a large one.

At 8-1 or higher, Country Grammer is the choice. If not Country Grammer, then also pay attention to Hot Rod Charlie to see if he offers 9-2 or higher.

Win/place: Country Grammer (at 8-1 or higher)

Win: Hot Rod Charlie (at 9-2 or higher)