Analysis: Family Way is class of Ky. Downs Ladies Marathon

One of the more interesting entries at Kentucky Downs this weekend is Family Way, who starts in the Grade 3, $550,000 Ladies Marathon Stakes on Sunday. The 5-year-old daughter of Uncle Mo is also possible for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Keeneland.

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Trained by Brendan Walsh, Family Way arguably stands as the class of the Ladies Marathon field based on her performances against top names earlier in the year.

In March, Family Way ran second and lost by one length to Virginia Joy in The Very One Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park. In Virginia Joy’s next start, she went on to dominate the Sheepshead Bay Stakes (G2) by 14 1/4 lengths at Belmont Park. More recently, Virginia Joy won the Flower Bowl Stakes (G2) at Saratoga while defeating a big turf name in War Like Goddess.

Family Way won the Orchid Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream in her next start, before going on to finish runner-up to War Like Goddess by one length in the Bewitch Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. For Family Way to only lose by that margin to a mare such as War Like Goddess is a positive in terms of class handicapping.  

Despite the Bewitch’s Grade 3 status, War Like Goddess has been a proven Grade 1 quality runner. Last November, War Like Goddess ended up third after holding the lead at one point in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She also took the 2021 Flower Bowl Invitational (G1) when it had Grade 1 status.

In June, Family Way ran second again by a half length to Bleecker Street in the New York Stakes (G1) at Belmont, which was Family Way’s first Grade 1 placing. Bleecker Street went on to finish third in the Diana Stakes (G1) at Saratoga in her next start after her stablemate In Italian led all the way.

As for Family Way’s recent third in the Beverly D. Stakes (G1) on the dreaded Churchill Downs turf course, she deserves a pass for hanging.

Just watch the replay and notice all the clouds of dirt flying up as the fillies and mares ran around the track. It felt like watching a turf race at a third-tier racetrack, rather than one at a top-class place such as Churchill Downs.

The “turf course” arguably favored speed horses, which worked against Family’s Way’s bid on the far turn when she tipped outside of the leaders.

Nevertheless, Family Way’s third-place finish at Churchill still counted as another Grade 1 placing, giving her two heading into the Ladies Marathon.

In this spot, Family Way faces Adventuring, Luck Money, Oliviaofthedesert, Flippant, Core Values, Disappearing Act, Stand Tall and Viburnum. None of those opponents compare to Grade 1-quality runners such as War Like Goddess and Bleecker Street, or even the multiple Grade 2 winner Virginia Joy.

Additionally, Family Way owns successful local experience on this strange turf course as the defending champion. Not every American horse handles the European-style Kentucky Downs, but she is proven.  

All signs point to Family Way in the Ladies Marathon on Sunday.

If Family Way runs well and goes to the Breeders’ Cup afterwards, the great part for supporters is that she will get ignored by bettors. Even if Family Way wins on Sunday, horses from Kentucky Downs are not generally respected at the Breeders’ Cup. In all likelihood, Family Way will start at double-digit odds in the Filly & Mare Turf if she goes there.

Assuming Family Way does perform well on Sunday and heads to the Breeders’ Cup, keep in mind her races against War Like Goddess, Bleecker Street and Virginia Joy. With a clean trip at Keeneland, Family Way might get a piece in the Filly & Mare Turf if she can run back to those big efforts from earlier in the year. Plus, she can help light up the board as a longshot. 

The first step though is running well on Sunday at Kentucky Downs.