Analysis: Messier clearly leads division after Robert B. Lewis

For now, Messier stands on top of this year's 3-year-old crop as the fastest horse around. Whether he can make the Kentucky Derby is unclear, as he cannot earn any points under his current trainer, Bob Baffert. Regardless, his recent speed figure places him on another level.

Speed figure brands do not always agree on how fast or slow a race went. In this case, TimeformUS and Beyer Speed Figures are not very far apart.

Messier earned a 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 103 Beyer Speed Figure for winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) on Sunday.

Messier’s 127 blows away any other 3-year-old TimeformUS Speed Figure. In addition, the context surrounding the figure backs it up.

Spaced-out margins indicate a fast race, and the first four finishers were far apart from each other. Messier won the Robert B. Lewis by 15 lengths over Cabo Spirit. Between Cabo Spirit and Wharton in third came another seven lengths. Wharton had 4 1/2 lengths on Sir London in fourth.

Messier opened up under a mild hand ride in the stretch.

Considering the previous speed figures of his opponents, the big number for Messier seems logical.

Wharton broke his maiden locally on Dec. 31 by 5 1/4 lengths with a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Also, Sir London broke his maiden at Los Alamitos on Dec. 4 by 10 lengths with a 100 on TimeformUS. Since Messier beat both horses by more than 20 lengths, a big figure was expected. 

Some detractors might dismiss the speed figure because of the short field, which does not make sense as speed figures do not account for field size.

Other critics might question who Messier beat in the Robert B. Lewis, and that is fair. The runner-up Cabo Spirit was a turf horse on paper who won the local Eddie Logan Stakes, while Wharton, Sir London and Happy Jack were only recent maiden winners. But as noted above, Wharton and Sir London had respectable speed figures. They were expected to finish closer to Messier, whose previous best was a 110.  

To explain Cabo Spirit’s surprising effort to finish second, perhaps he did not receive enough time though to develop as a dirt horse last year. He lost three times in a row on dirt to start his career, but he was only a 2-year-old.

One concern when analyzing Messier's romp was the day's speed bias. According to TimeformUS, the dirt races on the Feb. 6 Santa Anita card show the solid red designation, indicating a clear speed bias. How much did the bias affect Messier's 15-length margin?

Then again, Messier's past races create a logical path to his breakthrough performance last Sunday. Remember, Messier broke his maiden locally by 6 1/2 lengths last October in easy fashion and also won the Bob Hope Stakes (G3) at Del Mar in November by 3 1/2 lengths.

Afterward, Messier lost to a green and unfocused Slow Down Andy in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) by one length. But to Messier's credit, he put nine lengths on the third-place Barossa.

Slow Down Andy probably will establish himself as one of the top 3-year-olds soon. If he puts his raw talent together and runs straight in the stretch, he could pick up major wins in this division. 

With the exception of Smile Happy, the 3-year-olds in other circuits such as Florida, New York, Arkansas and Louisiana are not very impressive. Smile Happy or Slow Down Andy might show up in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) on Feb. 19 with another huge effort to back up their last win, but let them prove it on the course first before declaring them the best.

In the immediate moment, it is fair to call Messier the fastest horse and division leader. If he finds a way to make the Kentucky Derby without points, his speed and natural ability will make him a major player. Given that he is also a son of Empire Maker, longer distances are not a problem.

Regardless of whether he runs in the Derby, the future is bright for Messier.