Analysis: Gamine's smaller win margins, speed figures

Last November, Gamine gave a sparkling performance in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at Keeneland to win by a widening 6 1/4 lengths. Earlier in the 2020 season, Gamine also had won the Test Stakes (G1) at Saratoga by seven lengths and Acorn Stakes (G1) at Belmont by an incredible 18 3/4 lengths.

Now it is a different year, and Gamine enters the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at Del Mar next week with less flashy form than her dominant one-turn wins made her appear last year.  

The two noticeable changes are easily seen on paper.

For one, Gamine no longer blows out the field by huge margins in Grade 1 races like she did in her Acorn and Test victories last summer. While she won by 10 lengths in the Great Lady M Stakes (G2) at Los Alamitos in July, she could win by only 1 3/4 lengths and 1 1/2 lengths in the Derby City Distaff (G1) at Churchill Downs in May and Ballerina Handicap (G1) at Saratoga in August.  

The second concern is that Gamine’s speed figures also appear lower overall on TimeformUS and Beyer.

In Gamine's four starts this season, she earned a 112, 114, 117 and 119 on TimeformUS. In 2020, Gamine earned a 104, 117, 125, 120 and 120 before the Breeders’ Cup. Cross out the early 104, as it came in Gamine's career debut. When the remaining four 2020 TimeformUS Speed Figures are compared to the four 2021 figures, Gamine is slower.

For those who use Beyer Speed Figures, Gamine earned a 98, 99, 98 and 104 in four starts this year. In 2020, minus the career debut, Gamine earned a 98, 110, 108 and 96 before the Breeders' Cup win. When comparing the Beyers from 2020 to 2021, it is notable how she failed to reach 108 to 110 Beyer range in her four starts this year. 

Here is one explanation for both current shortcomings.

According to TimeformUS, Gamine set a slow pace in three of four races this year. In the lone race where Gamine did not set a slow pace, she won the Great Lady M by 10 lengths. A slower pace promotes smaller finishing margins, while a fast pace tends to promote a strung out field.

Why does a slower pace promote smaller margins?

In races with a slower pace, the field tends to clump together early on. This pattern happens in turf racing quite often. In dirt racing, a faster pace tends to spread out the field more. If the pace runs slow enough in a dirt race, it could resemble a turf race with little separation between each horse and a small margin from the leader to the trailer.

When Gamine set the pace in the Derby City Distaff, she posted early fractions of 23.15, 46.08 and 1:09.28. TimeformUS gave all three fractions a blue label with sluggish pace figures of 86, 89 and 103.

Only five lengths separated the entire six-horse Derby City Distaff field through the opening quarter and half-mile.

The eventual runner-up Sconsin was only 3 1/2 lengths behind.

At the top of the stretch, Sconsin had only one length to make up, as Gamine never put any separation on the field. Although Gamine outkicked her to win by 1 1/2 lengths, the sluggish early pace kept Sconsin in the race early and made her a brief threat on the turn. 

If Gamine had hit the accelerator button before the turn, the final winning margin might increase because Sconsin would end up needing to close a bigger gap than 3 1/2 lengths, assuming Gamine separated.

Likewise, Gamine set a slow pace in the Ballerina with fractions of 23.20, 45.68 and 1:09.20. Once again, TimeformUS gave all three fractions a blue label and modest pace figures of 100, 114 and 119.

Only 4 1/2 lengths separated the seven-horse field through the half-mile.

In other words, the Ballerina resembled a turf race.

Because of the slower pace, Ce Ce, Estilo Talentoso and Lake Avenue were only one to two lengths behind Gamine at the top of the stretch. Gamine outran all of them to win by 1 3/4 lengths anyway. But Gamine kept all those fillies in the game in the first place by running slow early and keeping everything in the tank for the middle part of the stretch. 

Why is the speed figure slower on average after a slow pace?

TimeformUS and Beyer Speed Figures are based on final time. If the pacesetter sets a slow half-mile, it forces the eventual winner to close quickly to earn a fast final time. In many situations, it becomes too difficult to overcome a slow pace in order to achieve a fast time. Therefore, it becomes a challenge to earn a fast figure off a slow pace. 

On TimeformUS, the final speed figure usually is also adjusted down for horses such as Gamine who led through slow fractions and won. For example, Gamine earned a raw 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the Ballerina, but the pace adjustment meant her figure went down to 119.

A slow pace makes it harder for figure makers to create their numbers, and it makes it more difficult for handicappers to trust speed figures as a measurement of a horse's ability. Whenever an extremely slow pace is attached to a speed figure, the figure is more useful as a measurement of how fast the horse ran in that specific race, with no accounting for how a faster pace would affect the final speed figure.

Next week, Gamine still needs to face a big threat in Bella Sofia, a 3-year-old filly on the rise with two straight wins in graded-stakes races. Even if Gamine runs a faster early pace and moves forward with a big speed figure, Bella Sofia still might own enough talent to beat Gamine.

Nevertheless, the point is not to take Gamine’s small winning margins or speed figures too seriously because of the slow pace scenarios in her races this year. She could pop a huge number again if the pace is faster.