Analysis: Excuse War of Will's losses as the Jim Dandy pick

While he won the second leg of the Triple Crown, War of Will enters the Grade 2, $600,000 Jim Dandy Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga with three losses in his last four starts. In each of those defeats, War of Will has failed to hit the board as well, crossing the wire ninth, eighth and ninth.

But a few excuses exist for War of Will’s misfires in his races surrounding the Preakness.

For one, War of Will finished ninth in the Belmont Stakes partially because he ran wide on both turns. Plus, Sir Winston came out and interfered with his Mark Casse-trained stablemate.

But in all likelihood, the main excuse is that War of Will cannot go 1 1/2 miles. He quit after Sir Winston came out, but the tank had emptied.

War of Will cuts back to nine furlongs in this spot, which will help. While he draws wide, breaking out of Post 6 is less of a problem.

Three starts ago in the Kentucky Derby, War of Will began to tip out on the turn. But of course, Maximum Security came out and took War of Will’s path before running on to victory, causing some long and heated arguments.

War of Will kept fighting before fading to eighth. Via disqualification, he finished seventh after the stewards took down Maximum Security.

Determining exactly how many lengths War of Will lost because of the foul is difficult. Even if he continued to run on, the mental tax of getting cut off possibly cost him enough lengths to earn a better placing.

War of Will deserves a pass on his Kentucky Derby fade. Most handicappers consider the Derby a “one-off” running line anyway. With 20 horses and an insane crowd yelling at them, it is a unique experience.

In War of Will’s final prep race on the Derby trail, he finished ninth in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds. The poor finish came after he lost his footing at the break and incurred a minor injury.

Scratch out those losses, and War of Will’s record this year is sparkling with wins in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), Risen Star (G2) and Preakness.

Plus, War of Will owns good tactical speed. Given he drew the outside post in Saturday's field of six, jockey Tyler Gaffalione can watch the break unfold and flank either Global Campaign or Tax while in the clear. Then, War of Will can strike first.

War of Will is my top selection in a closely-matched field.

Another scenario exists where Global Campaign slips away out front and wins. After all, TimeformUS Pace Projector puts Global Campaign on an uncontested lead through a slow pace, although he usually presses.

Global Campaign won the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) in mid-May by chasing a fast pacesetter in Federal Case. TimeformUS does not mark the fractions in red, indicating a scorching pace, but Federal Case posted opening fractions of 23.19 and 46 flat for nine furlongs, while Global Campaign followed him along in second.

Approaching the turn, Global Campaign moved alongside Federal Case and put him away. He then needed to hold off a late-charging Sir Winston.

Global Campaign won, but he looked tired at the end. Pressing Federal Case and getting the upper hand is one manageable task, but in this situation he will face pressure from War of Will and Tax. Even if he manages to put them away, Global Campaign will then need to face a second wave in Tacitus.

Furthermore, in Global Campaign’s only try around two turns he faded to fifth by 5 ½ lengths in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream. Granted, he chased a suicidal pace led by Hidden Scroll and Gladiator King and exited that race with a grabbed quarter that has continued to plague him into the summer.

Obviously, Global Campaign won the Peter Pan, and the Fountain of Youth fade is forgivable given the pace. But, the feeling is Global Campaign wants a one-turn mile.

He still merits respect as my second choice.

The third winning scenario involves Tax working out a rail trip and grinding his way to victory. If he saves ground while finding a way to sit off Global Campaign and War of Will, he might find a way to win. But if Tax gets sent to the front and takes pressure, he is toast.

Tacitus is the morning line favorite at 7-5 and, as I see it, only the fourth most-likely winner.

Notice in his Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and Wood Memorial (G2) wins, he received big pace setups. If a speed duel develops between Global Campaign, War of Will and Tax, Tacitus will get into the picture late.

But with the Jim Dandy pace expected to remain moderate at best, the Travers Stakes (G1) feels more suitable for him, especially with the extra distance.

Laughing Fox and Mihos look overmatched.

War of Will projects to get a clear outside trip. If yet another horse somehow comes out and interferes, then War of Will is officially cursed. But if he relaxes and strikes at the right moment on the turn, he can win.

At 2-1 or higher, War of Will will offer fair win odds. Because Tacitus and Global Campaign are low-priced options too, the right underneath horse is Tax at 8-1. For a longer value, throw in Laughing Fox as well.

That makes my plays a win bet on No. 6, and an exacta wheel with No. 6 over 1 and 2.