Analysis: Which filly could rebound in Saratoga Dew?

With the returning Simply Ravishing and morning-line favorite Mrs. Orb likely to attract significant money in the $100,000 Saratoga Dew Handicap Thursday at Saratoga, the race becomes more playable for those who do not completely trust either filly.

Why doubt Simply Ravishing? She won the off-the-turf P. G. Johnson Stakes on this course last September and the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) at Keeneland one month later. Fourth-place finishes in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland again and Golden Rod Stakes (G2) in late November at Churchill Downs closed out an otherwise successful season.

Simply Ravishing returned in the Ashland Stakes (G1) at Keeneland last April. She set the pace uncontested before folding to sixth by 19 1/4 lengths.

After another layoff, Simply Ravishing now starts in a $100k race limited to New York-breds, which is an odd move for a filly who ran all six previous starts in open female company against her own age group. The fact that trainer Ken McPeek chooses to start in this spot could mean the filly is short or off form.

What is wrong with choosing Mrs. Orb?

Odds and value aside, she is not a terrible choice. Mrs. Orb recently won the Caesars Wish Stakes at Pimlico. Two starts ago, she was a distant third by 10 1/4 lengths in the Critical Eye. Before the Critical Eye, Mrs. Orb took the La Verdad Stakes at Aqueduct to start off the year. In other words, it has been a mixed bag so far this year. 

Mrs. Orb does own nine-furlong experience. Her two nine-furlong efforts in 2020 include second-place finishes in the Turnback the Alarm Handicap (G3) and the New York-bred limited Bay Ridge Stakes.

Why is Mrs. Orb the morning line favorite at 6-5 odds? Those odds seem a bit short. Even though her nine-furlong record is 3: 1-2-0, she seems to struggle to put away the race toward the end at this distance. With that said, this mare is usable defensively in tickets.

The remaining options left are Espresso Shot, Maiden Beauty and Dancing Kiki.

Espresso Shot makes the fifth start of the season for trainer Jorge Abrueu. She began the year with a third-place finish in the La Verdad Stakes, won by Mrs. Orb. Espresso Shot lost by four lengths after staying within a length for most of the race.

One start later, Espresso Shot won the Biogios Stakes at Aqueduct by two lengths.

But then she ran a dismal sixth by 13 lengths in the Critical Eye Handicap before rebounding somewhat with a fourth by 2 3/4 lengths in the recent Dancin Renee Stakes at Belmont. Espresso Shot gives the impression that she wants a longer route race, despite past losses at the distance.

In 2019, she went off at 9-5 in the Gazelle Stakes (G3) and could run no better than fifth in a six-horse field. She also ran second in a nine-furlong optional claiming race last August on this course. In fairness to Espresso Shot, she had no chance when the loose pacesetter Foxtail set the early fractions in 24.57 and 48.78.

Espresso Shot is likely better than those two nine-furlong efforts and deserves another chance from bettors at this distance. After all, the third time is the charm.

Maiden Beauty enters this race off a recent claim and makes her first start for trainer Robert Falcone Jr. In her lone try at nine furlongs, she contested a fast pace and faded to fifth by 20 1/4 lengths in the 2019 Fleet Indian Stakes on the course.

This year, Maiden Beauty won a one-mile allowance and optional claiming race back in February and March, before fading to third over the slop in a mid-April optional claiming race. More recently, Maiden Beauty was second in an optional claimer at Belmont under trainer Anthony Dutrow.

Dutrow had kept her at one mile or less.  

Dancing Kiki also enters this race after being claimed on July 22. Her new trainer Michael Maker has been hot at Saratoga, which makes this filly hard to dismiss.

In the local July 22 race, Dancing Kiki won by 5 1/4 lengths in a seven-furlong claiming race at the $35k level under trainer James Ryerson.

Prior to that win, Dancing Kiki had broken her maiden this year at Aqueduct in a maiden claiming race for New York-breds. She also won a New York-bred allowance race in March at Aqueduct, although she went on a three-race losing streak afterward. One of the losses in that period includes a fifth-place finish in the aforementioned Critical Eye. She lost by 11 3/4 lengths, while Mrs. Orb had come from behind for third and lost by 10 1/4 lengths to the loose pacesetter Bank Sting.   

It will not be a huge surprise if Maiden Beauty or Dancing Kiki wins, especially with their new trainers. But Espresso Shot is still the preferred alternative to Mrs. Orb and Simply Ravishing. It feels like Espresso Shot will pace herself well and grind around the racetrack, and that is a good style for the demanding nine furlongs at Saratoga.   

Espresso Shot is the best choice for a win and place bet, while both Espresso Shot and Mrs. Orb fit in longer multi-race wagers.

Bettors with a larger budget and playing one of the multi-race wagers might also want to consider the "all" button. The race is not easy.

Watch the morning line for shifts in odds as well, as they initially do not make sense in this specific race. Because she is a former Grade 1 winner, Simply Ravishing’s morning line odds of 7-2 may logically shift down in live wagering and Espresso Shot’s 5-2 odds might go up without those types of credentials.