Travers analysis: Epicenter's mild figures are forgivable

Without a doubt, Epicenter will start in the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga as the favorite. But the common knock against this consistent runner remains his moderate Beyer Speed Figures, which hover around 100 to 102. As a bettor, it is harder to accept a lower betting price without a dominant speed figure on paper.

For the most part, using caution before wagering on a favorite without standout speed figures is a good practice. When the odds are short, it makes sense to demand the horse in question excels in all categories.

But this is a unique situation where Epicenter’s stagnant speed figures are forgivable. He deserves the most respect based on his form dating back to his Risen Star Stakes (G2) win at Fair Grounds in March.

Epicenter won the Risen Star by 2 3/4 lengths over Smile Happy in second and a troubled Zandon in third. In their next starts, both Smile Happy and Zandon flattered Epicenter when Zandon took the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland by 2 1/2 lengths over Smile Happy in second.

Tawny Port finished a closing fifth in the Risen Star, and he went on to run second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) and capture the Lexington Stakes (G3). Slow Down Andy failed to make an impact in the Risen Star by finishing an even sixth, and he won the Sunland Derby (G3) in his next start.

Does it matter that Epicenter earned only a 98 Beyer Speed Figure for the Risen Star? Although he had an uncontested lead, he won by 2 3/4 lengths over Zandon and clearly defeated one of the strongest fields on the Derby trail. Epicenter took advantage of his lead in the right way. 

Trainer Steve Asmussen kept Epicenter at Fair Grounds, where he competed in the Louisiana Derby in his last prep race and used stalking tactics effectively to post his second win in a row. Epicenter completed the 1 3/16-mile distance in 1:54.38, which set a track record, and he earned a career-high 102 Beyer Speed Figure.

At this point, expectations were raised as Epicenter went into the Kentucky Derby. Even though he did not win, Epicenter ran an excellent race in defeat because of the suicidal pace, and he disappointed only in terms of the final speed figure. Epicenter made use of new closing tactics and made his move a touch too soon into the fast pace. He then held off Zandon in the stretch, but Rich Strike closed for the win.   

Fast-paced races tend to promote a fast time and speed figure. But in this situation, Epicenter surprisingly regressed on the Beyer scale. Epicenter lost by only 3/4 of a length and from a visual standpoint ran harder than he ever did at Fair Grounds, but he earned only a 100 Beyer for the runner-up effort. 

In terms of handicapping purposes, does it matter that Epicenter regressed to a 100? From showing patience in his new closing tactics and handling the move into a suicidal pace on the far turn, to holding off the Blue Grass winner Zandon for the entire stretch, Epicenter did almost everything right in the race except win and post a high speed figure.

Two weeks later in the Preakness, Epicenter’s mediocre break led to closing tactics again, and this time he found trouble because of the poor start. Skippylongstocking herded Epicenter a few paths to the inside, where he became squeezed. Joel Rosario took Epicenter to the rail and close to the rear, but the pace scenario did not pan out in his favor as Early Voting tracked moderate early fractions and went on to victory.

To Epicenter’s credit, he still rallied along the rail for a runner-up finish while losing by only 1 1/4 lengths to Early Voting, who faced no adversity.

Officially, Epicenter earned a 102 Beyer again. But because of the traffic and moderate pace, his speed figure did not matter. Whereas most horses might get discouraged with that trip, he still finished well.

Then in the local Jim Dandy Stakes (G2), Epicenter used his closing tactics again. In fact, the decision to not urge Epicenter out of the gate almost made him look beaten once Early Voting secured the lead uncontested.

Early Voting held the pace advantage by setting initial fractions of 24.22 seconds, 48.28 and 1:12.26. He also held a one- to two-length cushion early on.

But in this case, Early Voting gave up the lead by the early part of the stretch for no reason. As Early Voting struggled to hold on, Epicenter went wide under a confident Rosario and rallied past the field with ease.

The smaller field helped Epicenter avoid traffic and lay closer to the pace than he did in the troubled Preakness effort. At the same time, the lack of traffic revealed the better horse. This time, Early Voting could not even hold second or third. Epicenter defeated Zandon in second by 1 1/2 lengths, with Tawny Port half a length behind Zandon in third. Early Voting oddly faded to fourth and lost to Epicenter by 3 3/4 lengths.

Once again, Epicenter did everything right and disappointed only with earning a 102 Beyer once again. Remember that slower pace scenarios promote a slower figure because of the time wasted in the early part. As seen in the stretch, Epicenter won under a hand ride. One could conclude that Epicenter had more to give if Rosario asked for his best.

If Epicenter uses closing tactics again this week in the Travers, the only scenario that could stop him is breaking slowly in a medium to large-sized field. As seen in the Preakness, traffic becomes a problem for Epicenter at that point. Perhaps drawing the rail would hurt if he does not use speed.

Otherwise, Epicenter looks like the best horse on the probables list. Yes, in most cases bettors should demand standout speed figures from an expected favorite. Barring traffic problems, though, he should beat this field.