Analysis: In this form, play against Fleur de Lis favorite Elate

Even without any superstars stars present, it's never a good idea to concede a short-field race to the big favorite. If some holes exist in the star entry, it will give the bettor a nice chance to go against the public and beat a popular horse.

Such may be the case when Elate competes Saturday night in the Grade 2, $250,000 Fleur de Lis at Churchill Downs. Elate is flat both visually and on speed figures this season. Is she the same horse? Plus, as a star the public will not give her a break on odds, which are listed at 8-5 on the morning line.

First of all, take a look at Elate’s TimeformUS Speed Figures in 2018. She returned off a long layoff and won the Delaware Handicap (G2) by more than three lengths with a 122. Afterward, she finished runner-up in the Personal Ensign Stakes (G2) to Abel Tasman with a 131 on TimeformUS.

Remember, there is roughly a 20-point difference between TimeformUS and Beyer Speed Figures. A 131 on TimeformUS is supposed to equal 111.

And a 111 on Beyer is a big number in today’s racing world for a filly.

Elate suffered a setback and missed the Breeders’ Cup. She then returned in March when she ran in the Azeri Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park. She lost to Midnight Bisou with a 112 on TimeformUS, delivering a low figure compared to 2018.

Elate enjoyed a good trip overall. She only went slightly wide on both turns, but nothing too major stopped her.

The concerning part is the stretch run, when Elate took forever to get by Shamrock Rose. Despite clear sailing, Elate stalled under heavy urging.

While that went on, Midnight Bisou waited around the far turn and into the stretch before Mike Smith decided to switch her back inside, and she passed both horses to win. Midnight Bisou looked quite sharp, while Elate was flat.

Perhaps Elate needed one race off the layoff. But she lost to Midnight Bisou again in the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) a month later, finishing third by more than two lengths.

At least Elate improved her TimeformUS number to a 117. But from a visual standpoint, she provided little reason for optimism.

The roles switched this time, with Midnight Bisou making the wide move outside of Escape Clause around the turn and Elate waiting a bit inside.

But when Elate tipped out, she had no answer for Midnight Bisou and Escape Clause. The pair in front actually increased their margin from her.

Under heavy urging from Jose Ortiz, Elate also weaved in and out in the lane. But what excuse was there for Elate to come up short again? She had one race back.

Now, horses do not need to win to give a good impression. Sometimes those who lose run better than the winner, either due to pace issues or traffic problems. But in this case, Elate enjoyed clear sailing once again and offered nothing late. Last year's Elate would have at least joined the top pair.

It is possible Elate returns to her old form -- trainer Bill Mott hopes that's the case as she stretches to 1 1/8 miles -- but she is worth playing against here, even though the race lacks star power by name on her level.

The most logical alternative is She’s a Julie, who is in sharp form. She started off the year with a win in the Bayakoa Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn, and then backed it up with a career best performance in Churchill's La Troienne (G1).

She’s a Julie overcame a slow La Troienne pace to steadily mow down Secret Spice with a 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Previously, Secret Spice won the Beholder Mile (G1) at Santa Anita over Marley’s Freedom and Paradise Woods. The latter returned to win the Santa Margarita Stakes (G2).

Also, Pace Projector puts She’s a Julie on an uncontested lead through a slow pace, although that is questionable given the early speed of Fleur de Lis rivals Skeptic and Go Google Yourself. But She’s a Julie can sit off horses, too.

Given her sharp form and versatility, She's a Julie is the upset choice at 2-1 on the morning line.

Go Google Yourself is not in bad form, either, as she finished a close second in the Doubledogdare Stakes (G3) at Keeneland over a sloppy track one race after winning an Oaklawn optional claimer over Wonder Gadot.

As mentioned, she also owns the speed to stay close early. Go Google Yourself also offers incredible consistency, with 13 in-the-money finishes out of 14 starts.

The only question marks are the nine-furlong distance and overall speed. But while Go Google Yourself lacks any 120-plus TimeformUS figures, she is young enough to step forward and win.

Defending champion Blue Prize falls next on the priority list, as she loves Churchill Downs with a local 7: 3-2-1 record. But she had no answer for She’s a Julie in the La Troienne, finishing four lengths behind.

Why would Blue Prize defeat She’s a Julie here, or Elate for that matter?

If the pace gets too hot, maybe Blue Prize can get in the mix late. But she is not as likely as She’s a Julie or Go Google Yourself to upset.

Skeptic and Auspicious Babe are the least likely of Elate’s challengers to win. Skeptic’s two nine-furlong races are poor, while Auspicious Babe lacks speed and displays lower speed figures. In her last three starts, she earned a 99, 101 and 99. These two fillies are best kept underneath, if used at all.

Elate might still be the best horse, but She’s a Julie is the right choice betting-wise at this point in their careers. Horizontally, she works as an A or B to use alongside Elate.

She's a Julie could also work as a show bet if the public decides to hammer Elate. If there are at least six figures on Elate to show and she finishes out of the money, then the show payouts on the top three horses will balloon. As for fair win bet odds on She's a Julie, 3-1 or higher is plenty fair.

But if Elate wins and returns to her 2018 form, then she deserves a tip of the cap. There is nothing wrong with playing against the favorite and losing.