Analysis: Play against Eight Rings in Oaklawn's Bachelor

After a disappointing Breeders’ Cup Juvenile effort, Eight Rings makes his return Saturday in the $100,000 Bachelor Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Cutting back to the six-furlong distance, this Bob Baffert-trained colt might look attractive at first.

But Eight Rings brings enough questions to consider other options. For one, almost every horse from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile has been unsuccessful in 2020, bringing the field's overall quality into question. Also, Eight Rings gives the impression of a one-dimensional pacesetter in the same vein as the older filly Serengeti Empress.

Going back to the Juvenile, only two horses from that race have won again since November – Full Flat and Shoplifted. Two months ago, Full Flat captured the Saudi Derby, while Shoplifted took the Remington Springboard Mile last December.

Full Flat defeated a weak field overseas. The American fourth-place finisher Rowdy Yates had run a dismal seventh in the Springboard Mile. As for Shoplifted, he lost his next three races afterwards, including a third in the Smarty Jones Stakes, fourth in the Southwest Stakes (G3) and fifth in the Oaklawn Stakes.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Storm the Court lost his next two starts, finishing fourth in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) and third in the San Felipe Stakes (G2).

Juvenile runner-up Anneau d’Or ran second in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) before a dismal ninth in the second division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2).

The third-place Wrecking Crew finished fourth out of four horses in the Los Alamitos Futurity before a non-threatening fifth by 16 ¾ lengths in the San Felipe.

Scabbard, fourth in the Juvenile, has been a constant “wise-guy” horse in his subsequent races. But he missed the board in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), first division of the Risen Star Stakes and even a local allowance optional claimer won by Shooters Shoot on April 11. In those three races, he started at 3-1, 7-1 and 3-1.

As for Eight Rings, he faded to fifth after pressing Storm the Court early on in the Juvenile. He did not resemble the colt who won the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) by six lengths last September after leading them uncontested throughout that race.

But the difference in Eight Rings' efforts brings up another question. Does Eight Rings require a solo lead for his best shot? For what it is worth, in his 5 1/2-furlong maiden win last August at Del Mar, he contested the lead and went on to draw clear by 6 ¼ lengths.

Also, the Bachelor is only a six-furlong race, which could help.

Eight Rings defeated inexperienced horses, however, in his debut win. Shooters Shoot finished third, but it was likely a different version of him.

Can Eight Rings look a stakes-experienced pacesetter such as Long Weekend in the eye, put him away on the turn and still hold off any stalkers or closers late?

Looking further into the field, Long Weekend has moved forward for trainer Tom Amoss since returning from the layoff in February. He made his comeback in an allowance optional claimer at Sam Houston, setting the pace before winning by 6 ¾ lengths.

One month later, Long Weekend tackled the local Gazebo Stakes. Once again, he set the pace and drew clear to win by 4 ¾ lengths, this time under heavier urging.

For the latter win, Long Weekend earned a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure, higher than any number on Eight Rings’ past performances. With that said, comparing 3-year-old speed figures to 2-year-old figures is unfair. Also, has Long Weekend topped out at 114? His Gazebo victory was a taxing effort from a visual standpoint.

Like Eight Rings, Long Weekend wants the front for his best shot. Given that fact, Long Weekend can win if Eight Rings does not gun for the lead. But how probable is that scenario with the aggressive Joel Rosario on Eight Rings? Remember Rosario’s ride on Ollie’s Candy last weekend? Rosario will not show any fear with his tactics.

Considering the questions surrounding Eight Rings and Long Weekend, as well as the pace scenario, Echo Town is the logical choice as a midpack runner.

Echo Town broke his maiden at Fair Grounds on Jan. 19 by 2 ½ lengths, earning an impressive 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure for a first-time starter.

One month later, Echo Town competed in a local optional claimer and did not enjoy the inside trip. He lost position at different points before rallying again late. For the troubled third-place finish, he still picked up a respectable 106 on TimeformUS.

In his most recent start on March 13, Echo Town enjoyed an outside trip again and responded well over the slop with a 3 ¾-length win. He earned a 112.

The 112 figure is a competitive enough speed number that Echo Town can build upon.

Echo Town drew Post 3, which could pose a problem looking back to his lone defeat. But with Eight Rings and Long Weekend likely to contest the front, perhaps the field can spread out enough to give Echo Town breathing room. From there, jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. will need to guide Echo Town to the outside.

Eight Rings and Long Weekend are still usable as backups. Both of them are low-priced speedballs, though, who could end up canceling each other out.

Despite the Asmussen/Santana Jr. combination, Echo Town is 9/2 and probable to remain at those odds. Given there is zero chance Echo Town will start as the favorite, taking a shot on him getting the right trip and moving forward in this spot is worth the risk.