Analysis: This Roar Stakes rival can upset Green Light Go

Grade 2 winner Green Light Go makes his return off a 105-day layoff Saturday in the $75,000 Roar Stakes at Gulfstream Park. There, he will compete against five fellow 3-year-old horses scheduled to run 6 ½ furlongs.

As one of the more recognizable 3-year-olds in training and a graded stakes winner, Green Light Go figures to attract money. For bettors, though, that is the problem when plotting a wagering strategy.

Green Light Go could win on the class drop, but the value is not there. Because of his name recognition, the public will bet this colt down to even money or less. Yet he looks far from invincible.

Three months ago, Green Light Go competed in the local Swale Stakes (G3) and disappointed with a flat third-place finish as the 8/5 second choice.

What happened?

From watching the replay, nothing significant occurred in his trip.

Green Light Go broke well and elected to let the speed horses go. After the opening quarter, he wound up slightly wide in sixth, only two lengths behind the leaders.

On the turn, Green Light Go wanted to run, but Necker Island kept him from tipping out and taking the overland route. At the top of the stretch, room opened up on inside and Green Light Go took that route instead to third with Untitled battling right outside of him.

Unfortunately, Mischevious Alex opened up on the field and crossed the wire seven lengths ahead in a powerful performance. Green Light Go failed to outrun a tired Shivaree for the runner-up spot, but to his credit Green Light Go did out-finish Untitled, who had a clear shot to pass him.

Also, Green Light Go earned a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure, a high number relative to this field.

Mischevious Alex went on to capture the Gotham Stakes (G3) in another victory over Untitled. Shivaree finished second in the Hutcheson Stakes in an unremarkable effort. But one start later, he also ran second to Tiz the Law in a strong Florida Derby (G1) field.

Green Light Go's backers could use the Gotham and Florida Derby results as evidence he ran against a good group of horses in the Swale. Still, the price on him is low because bettors will not back off despite his seven-length loss. In most cases, when a horse loses by seven lengths his odds go up next time.

In the Roar, one viable alternative is the Maryland-bred gelding Double Crown, who is trained by Katherine Ritvo and owned by Reeves Thoroughbred Racing.

Double Crown flashed some early promise last September at Laurel Park when then trained by Lacey Gaudet. At first asking, he broke his maiden by a neck over Ournationonparade, who won the Maryland Millions Nursery Stakes a month later.

After that, Double Crown went on the shelf for 231 days as his connections changed. He returned as a gelding for Ritvo in a local April 26 allowance race on slop.

In the running line, this effort will show up as a minor Z pattern.  

Double Crown initially settled wide and only three lengths off the pace. But when his former maiden foe Ournationonparade lost his rider, Double Crown lost a few more lengths and fell at least five back of the leader approaching the turn.

But then Double Crown circled the field and rallied wide with a strong bid, steadily making up ground through the stretch. Hop Kat held a better position and retained a small advantage over Double Crown late, winning by one length over his closing rival.

The third-place Jake Rocks did not run well in his next start, fading to sixth in a local allowance optional claimer on May 10. However, the winner Hop Kat is a promising runner who broke his maiden by eight lengths last May at Churchill.

Double Crown also came off a long layoff, and horses generally improve in their second start or third start off the bench. It is reasonable to expect a move forward off his 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

With those points in mind, Double Crown is the top selection for the Roar.

As for other contenders, With Verve brings a two-race win streak into this event, including a neck win over Shivaree in the Hutcheson. However, he likely defeated a different version of Shivaree -- either that or Shivaree improved greatly on the stretchout in the Florida Derby. Given With Verve's win streak and mild speed figures, this gelding will not offer a ton of value here.

Ournationonparade might also win with a good trip. But as mentioned, he already lost to Double Crown at Laurel last September after holding an uncontested lead. Overall, Double Crown holds more upside.

Ricki Ticki Taffi and Cajun Casanova likely want five furlongs.

Figure-wise, Green Light Go is the best horse on paper. But Double Crown will offer the right value. If Double Crown gets the right trip and builds off his runner-up return effort, he can upset the heavy favorite.