Does Baffert’s $3.55 million colt Hejazi need early lead to win?

After finishing third in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) last fall, the $3.55 million colt Hejazi stood as one of trainer Bob Baffert’s better 2-year-olds.

If Baffert and Zedan Racing Stables wanted to take a shot at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, they had an argument based off his placing. But Hejazi was still a maiden, and Baffert chose to back off and give him time to grow as a horse.

Hejazi made his return Sunday and broke his maiden at Santa Anita in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint. But now he seems forgotten with all the Derby prospects in the same barn. Based on how he won his maiden race, it feels that he could find success on the trail. But Hejazi’s new style might also make it crowded up front against his stablemates.

Instead of using his stalking tactics from last year, jockey Mike Smith opted to send Hejazi to the front in the Santa Anita card opener. Hejazi led under pressure from Sully through the first two quarters in 21.97 and 44.28 seconds.

Hejazi continued to lead over a stubborn Sully around the turn. But as the horses straightened out, Hejazi switched leads and put Sully away. He also kept his own stablemate Worcester at bay in second.

The way Hejazi won felt reminiscent of his fallen stablemate Medina Spirit, another Zedan Racing Stables colt whose best races came on the lead. After setting the pace, Medina Spirit crossed the wire first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby before his official disqualification last February.

From a final time standpoint, the race was fast. Hejazi completed the 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:14.58, which earned him an impressive 97 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form, and 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. On the last race of the card, the Baffert-trained Recall and Reloaded took an allowance optional claiming race for older horses in 1:16.05 for the same distance.

From a pedigree standpoint, Hejazi looks bred on top and bottom for distance. In his top half, Hejazi’s sire is the multiple Grade 1 route winner Bernardini, making Hejazi a grandson of A.P. Indy. As for Hejazi’s bottom side, the colt is out of the Medaglia d’Oro mare G Note.

G Note descends from Antespend, a multiple Grade 1 winner who won at as long as nine furlongs. Antespend won races such as the Las Virgenes Stakes (G1) and Santa Anita Oaks (G1) before finishing fourth in the 1996 Kentucky Oaks (G1).

With all those route influences, it is surprising that three of Hejazi's races came in sprints. But sometimes young horses need seasoning before they can route on a more regular basis, even with a good pedigree.

In any case, Hejazi already finished a solid third in the American Pharoah, a 1 1/16-mile route. Sure, Hejazi lost by 8 3/4 lengths. But Cave Rock dominated the race, and he stood as the best 2-year-old in the country at that point. For Hejazi to run third in a Grade 1 as a maiden demonstrated promising talent.

The only question is whether Hejazi won his return race last Sunday because he used a pacesetting style or because he matured. If Hejazi needs the lead in the same fashion as Medina Spirit, then his assignments might become difficult down the road against other Baffert pacesetters Cave Rock and Reincarnation. But if Hejazi can learn how to win after stalking, he becomes easier to trust in races filled with speed.

Then again, Medina Spirit did cross the wire first in the Kentucky Derby and Awesome Again Stakes (G1) while using those front-running tactics. Perhaps developing into a great pacesetter is not such a curse, especially since many jockeys today tend to avoid an all-out speed duel by tugging their mounts. Hejazi could get left alone more often than not.

Regardless, Hejazi gives the impression of a promising runner after last Sunday. From a betting standpoint, move him up next time if the pace appears soft and he can lead. But if other Baffert pacesetters show up, then it becomes difficult to decide which horses gets sent up front.