Analysis: Cutback favors Micheline in Lake George Stakes

According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, the Grade 3, $100,000 Lake George Stakes on Friday at Saratoga is supposed to offer a fast pace. With the favorite Sweet Melania, Velvet Crush and longshot Sugar Fix all likely to show early speed, the pace falls into the moderate category at a minimum, and fast at most.

With the pace scenario in mind, searching for a closer makes sense. Micheline is a tough one to figure out, with a mix of good races and clunkers on record. But after flattening out last time, the cutback in distance and inside post position figure to help sustain her late bid.

In her most recent start, Micheline made a nice move in the nine-furlong Regret Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs. But she flattened out.

Watch Micheline stall late from a perfect outside rallying position. Ultimately, she ended up eighth.

Yet, two starts ago in the shorter Honey Ryder Stakes at Gulfstream, Micheline kept moving strongly in the stretch for a 2 1/4-length victory.

How did she run better?

For one, the Regret is a Grade 3 and a quality field usually comes with the graded label. But the fillies Micheline beat in the Honey Ryder were no pushovers. TimeformUS gave a class rating of 108 to the Regret and 102 to the Honey Ryder.   

For comparison, Sweet Melania won the Wonder Again Stakes (G3) in her recent start and TimeformUS gave that race only a 103 class rating. Yet, Sweet Melania is the clear favorite at 8/5. Even though Honey Ryder’s 102 class rating is a bit low, it looks better with that in mind.  

Also, Micheline had to move wide in the Regret. But in the Honey Ryder, the sustained bid came after saving ground and tipping out.  

This time, Micheline shows more punch in the stretch and moves clear of Highland Glory and Stunning Sky towards the wire. On turf, 2 1/4 lengths is a clear margin.  

Highland Glory went on to finish second in the Wonder Again Stakes (G3) to Sweet Melania. Stunning Sky gave a mediocre effort in the Regret Stakes, closing for only sixth and barely ahead of Micheline. But she recently ran second to Antoinette in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational.

In this spot, Micheline cuts back to one mile and draws Post 2. After Sweet Melania goes to the lead, Micheline is likely to save ground once more. When it comes time to tip out, the shorter distance will help optimize the run.

Micheline is the main choice. At her morning line odds of 9/2, she is fair.

As mentioned earlier, Sweet Melania took the Wonder Again Stakes over Highland Glory, with Antoinette in third. She won by a diminishing 1 1/2 lengths.

Last year, Sweet Melania contested the pace in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf before fading to third in the stretch. Granted, she lost to a good filly in Sharing.

Prior to the Breeders’ Cup, Sweet Melania went all the way in the Jessamine Stakes (G3) at Keeneland, winning by 5 1/2 lengths in an impressive performance. But did Sweet Melania merely take advantage of inexperienced runners with her early speed? In 2-year-old races, sometimes early speed is all it takes to win against developing runners.

Sweet Melania remains a win contender, but use caution before trusting her. As Pace Projector indicates, Velvet Crush is capable of flashing speed as well. If Velvet Crush breaks better than her terrible start in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), jockey Luis Saez figures to urge his mount and waste no time in pressuring Sweet Melania.

As for a longer price, Witez has a smaller chance to win after making a sweeping move to capture a local one-mile allowance race on July 26. Similar to Micheline, Witez also made a notable move in the Regret and faded. But this filly lost ground more severely than Micheline and faded to 12th, 10 3/4 lengths behind the winner.

With that said, Witez's only two wins came in one-mile races. Perhaps she benefits from the shorter distance as well and makes noise late.

And do not completely discount Velvet Crush as just a pace presence. Her 18-length flop in the CCAO is the result of a poor break rather than a lack of ability.

In Velvet Crush’s only turf start, she ran a closing second in a Belmont maiden race last September after stumbling at the start. Note the fourth-place finisher Antoinette.

But Micheline remains the most interesting betting option.

For those playing the late pick 4, Micheline and Sweet Melania are the two fillies to use. Those who want some longer shots could think about tossing in Witez and Velvet Crush, but they fit better as lesser B or C options in the A-B-C-X structure. Otherwise, a simple win/place wager on Micheline is fine at 9/2 or higher.