Analysis: Current offers value in Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes

Considering last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf produced five future Kentucky Derby trail runners in Mendelssohn, Catholic Boy, My Boy Jack, Flameaway and Snapper Sinclair, those returning from the race deserve consideration on dirt.

Saturday's Grade 2, $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs presents an opportunity for the trend to continue, as there is one notable horse making his first start back after the Juvenile Turf in Current. The Todd Pletcher-trained son of Curlin finished seventh on yielding turf, but he can rebound in the surface switch. 

Using the TimeformUS Pace Projector, the race should go at a fast clip, with Pletcher’s King for a Day and Manny Wah leading the way. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Knicks Go, Topper T and Plus Que Parfait are supposed to fall right behind them. 

As with his older sister Weep No More, who won the 2016 Ashland Stakes (G1), Current runs as a closer. This flaxen-maned colt won the Bourbon Stakes (G3) at Keeneland with one final-second closing kick at the same 1 1/16-mile distance as this race.

While that is the type of move typically seen in a good turf horse, the family looks versatile enough to give him the benefit of the doubt. Note how Current’s second dam, Flute, won the 2001 Kentucky Oaks and Alabama Stakes (G1) on dirt as well.   

Although Current showed speed on Sept. 8 at Belmont when breaking his maiden, the slow pace allowed him to sit closer. Current will likely come from the back in this spot, and with a fast pace, he can post a mild upset. The morning line lists him at 15-1. 

The other interesting closer is Signalman, who finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after finding his way to the rail from a wide post and saving ground. 

The General Quarters colt switched out slightly on the far turn to avoid a fading Complexity, and then continued along the inside toward Knicks Go late. 

Signalman gives the impression of a hanger, though, as he comes into a good position on the far turn only to flatten out slightly in mid-stretch. When Signalman finished a closing second in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) one race before, the pacesetter and winner Knicks Go actually gained more than two lengths on him in the stretch run. 

With the right horses placed on top, Signalman looks solid as a possible exacta or trifecta backwheel play. He might even prove the hanging theory wrong and win. 

Of course, if Signalman is a contender, then Knicks Go deserves consideration, too. 

Knicks Go finished in front of Signalman two races in a row despite doing most of the dirty work up front. The overlooked horse finished second in the Juvenile at 40-1 and won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) in wire-to-wire fashion at an astonishing 70-1. 

The morning line lists Knicks Go at 2-1, leaving no doubt his chances of double-digit odds are slim to none for this race. Also, the fast pace will work against his style. 

If Knicks Go works out a trip from Post 13, and the pace turns out moderate, he can win. Nevertheless, his value is completely gone. 

King for a Day deserves some mention here, as he posted a field-high 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure when breaking his maiden at Belmont Park on Oct. 4. The race turned out strong, as runner-up Felix the Fox returned to run second again with a 101, and the fourth-place Tacitus broke his maiden with a 100 on TimeformUS. 

Years of experience says not to blindly take the high speed-figure horse, but if the pace turns out moderate and he duplicates or improves on the number, he wins. 

The next group of horses on the contender list -- Dunph, Plus Que Parfait and Blue Steel -- are all promising runners without enough evidence to place on top alone. 

In Dunph’s case, the Temple City gelding broke his maiden at Penn National as easily as possible by over eight lengths with nothing but a handride. Following a private purchase, Dunph switched to trainer Michael Maker after the race and won impressively again in the local Spendthrift Juvenile Stallion Stakes, taking it by over seven lengths with some encouragement. 

The numbers appear a tad low, as TimeformUS awarded him a 97 and 99. Dunph’s ceiling remains high, though, as he absolutely can step forward against these. 

Plus Que Parfait broke his maiden in a gritty performance on Oct. 7 at Keeneland, digging in deep when Harvey Wallbanger made a bold move on the outside. The two horses met eye-to-eye, and the fact that Plus Que Parfait did not become intimidated is a good sign. TimeformUS credited him with a solid 103 for the professional effort.

Returning horses from the Plus Que Parfait maiden win ran well too. Harvey Wallbanger finished second and then broke his maiden. Third-place Cutting Humor won at Gulfstream West, and the fourth-place Erlich finished second to Tacitus at Aqueduct.

As for Blue Steel, the expensive Will Take Charge colt broke his maiden by five lengths on Oct. 28. While most of the field has not run back since then, the third-place finisher Frolic More returned to break his maiden on Nov. 17, albeit with a slow 88 figure. 

Blue Steel also sports some good connections in trainer Dale Romans and owner Spendthrift Farm. He can move forward off the 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

The last two horses to discuss are Roiland and Limonite, the first two finishers in a local Oct. 28 optional claimer at the same distance as this race. 

Roiland came from 10 lengths off the pace to score the victory for trainer Tom Amoss, and that kind of style can prove useful in this situation. However, Limonite ran well to only lose by a neck, and he shows some familiar names behind him in trainer Steve Asmussen and owners Winchell Thoroughbreds and Willis Horton Racing.  

Like with many of these runners, the sky is the limit for both lightly raced horses and the 20-1 morning line on each of them makes taking the risk easier. 

Rain is scheduled in the forecast, although the lack of experience in this field makes it difficult to pinpoint which horses will appreciate a wet dirt course. 

Given the connections, Current’s odds may fall from the 15-1 morning line into the single-digit range for Pletcher and the team of Robert LaPenta, Eclipse Thoroughbreds and Dixiana Farms. The race sets up for him, though, and he feels more trustworthy to not hang in the stretch like Signalman. At 7-1 or higher, a win/place bet is logical.