Analysis: Copper Town can top Mendelssohn in Cigar Mile

On pace handicapping alone, Mendelssohn looks tough in Saturday's Grade 1, $750,000 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct. His last two races display the kind of pace-compromised efforts I like to point out, and he cuts back to one mile off those solid runs. However, Mendelssohn is also a chronic money burner in the win position, dropping five straight races since the 18 ½-length romp in the UAE Derby (G2).

Because Mendelssohn is the 2-1 favorite on the morning line, it makes sense to either find alternatives to defeat Mendelssohn or use them alongside him.

Copper Town, the five-length winner of an Oct. 13 optional claimer at Keeneland, is the first logical next choice. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the 4-year-old Speightstown colt shares ownership with Triple Crown winner Justify.

His Keeneland win came after a significant layoff, and it also resulted in a slow 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure over subpar competition, as the race only earned a 105 class rating. For those using Beyer Speed Figures though, the race appears a lot faster. Copper Town scored a 101, which translates to 121 on TimeformUS.

In the five-length Keeneland win, at least Copper Town rated this time by settling in fourth early. He went four-wide on the turn, too. Whether the TimeformUS or Beyer number is accurate may not even matter considering the year-long layoff. 

The real reason to use Copper Town is based on his form last year when he won two races at Belmont Park in impressive wire-to-wire fashion.

In the maiden score, Javier Castellano gave Copper Town nothing but a hand ride, as he repelled Stan the Man on the turn and finished well clear of future Alysheba Stakes (G2) winner Backyard Heaven. Copper Town looked like a running machine.

One month later, Copper Town won easily again with John Velazquez aboard by over six lengths, this time repelling Patternrecognition on the turn. Patternrecognition took the Kelso Handicap (G2) in September. He is also the third choice in this race at 7/2.

If Copper Town can run to that version of himself, he can win the Cigar Mile. 

As for the favorite Mendelssohn, the frequent traveler will likely gun from the rail and attempt to take them wire-to-wire again like he tried to in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Mendelssohn went so fast up front that he helped ruin the chances of the two Bob Baffert runners West Coast and McKinzie, who both ran forwardly placed early on and faded to seventh and 12th late. The eventual winner Accelerate stalked in fifth through the initial stages, while the runner-up Gunnevera came all the way from 11th.

The Breeders’ Cup Classic flow favored closers, but Mendelssohn did well to hold fifth considering he accomplished the dirty work in setting the fast fractions.

One month before in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), Mendelssohn also endured a hard pace set by Diversify, with Mendelssohn about a length behind. Mendelssohn never gave up and held third behind the opportunistic late closer Discreet Lover.

Mendelssohn will offer no value, and trainer Aidan O’Brien will likely not change the strategy of showing speed early, especially since his horse drew the rail. But odds and value aside, the popular Scat Daddy colt holds a legitimate win chance again.

The next three horses to discuss come from the aforementioned Kelso, and the most exciting one out of the group is Sunny Ridge, who rallied outside for second.

According to TimeformUS, the main track heavily favored speed on this card, giving the pacesetter Patternrecognition an advantage. When the main track is speed-biased, it tends to favor the inside and Sunny Ridge ran five-wide around the turn.

Timeline came through on the inside, and while he feels untrustworthy, he deserves a look for trying to mow down the leader too. Given his 10-1 odds, he offers some value.

Patternrecognition holds a chance as well, but he runs best when setting the pace, and Mendelssohn will make sure that does not happen. Also, it is hard to trust Patternrecognition too much when Copper Town obliterated him last fall. In their best forms, Patternrecognition is not in the same zip code. It is not certain Copper Town is the same, though, and Mendelssohn still lacks a dirt win on North American soil.

Also note the Kelso fourth-place No Dozing, who went on to win next time with a 133 TimeformUS Speed Figure. If the two favorites fail, the Kelso trio is in the mix.

Another fringe contender is Pat On the Back, who has turned into a consistent horse since the transfer to Chad Brown’s barn in May. Right off the bat, he finished second by a nose to Diversify in the Commentator Stakes before going on to compete in three more New York-bred stakes. He took two of them and lost the other one by a neck.

In fact, the good majority of Pat On the Back’s 21 career starts came in New York-bred restricted races, making him more difficult to handicap. His best speed figures fit, however, and the second to top-class Diversify proves he can step his game up.

Stan the Man and True Timber complete the field, and both horses would come as a mild surprise if they won. The former won a local Aqueduct allowance on Nov. 4 by a length, and he will need to move forward considering he earned only a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. In fairness, Stan the Man came off a five-month layoff.

Stan the Man’s TimeformUS figure beats the return figure earned by Copper Town, but the difference is Copper Town's previous form signals his ceiling is a lot higher.

True Timber is notable because he defeated Patternrecognition on June 10 in an optional claimer before winning another optional claimer on Sept. 16. True Timber then got drilled by No Dozing in the Bold Ruler Handicap (G3), losing by over nine lengths.

If both horses stay away from the pace and make one run toward the end, either of them can possibly hit the bottom part of the trifecta or superfecta. The TimeformUS Pace Projector thinks Stan the Man will run off the pace, but it unfortunately predicts True Timber will press Mendelssohn.

In terms of horizontal wagers, Copper Town and Mendelssohn are the A team, while Sunny Ridge, Timeline, Pat On the Back and Patternrecognition are Bs. Stan the Man and True Timber are Cs, meaning not one horse in this race completely lacks a shot. If Copper Town or Mendelssohn fire their best effort, though, one of them should win.