Analysis: Concrete Rose a rock-solid Saratoga Oaks favorite

Concrete Rose enters Friday's first running of the $750,000 Saratoga Oaks Invitational with three wins this year and five wins out of six starts overall. Her one off-the-board finish came last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Fillies. 

The yielding turf, as well as a compact schedule to end the season, probably affected Concrete Rose in the Breeders’ Cup. When she returned this year, she won the Florida Oaks (G3) and Edgewood Stakes (G3), then followed up those wins by taking the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) at 1 ¼ miles. The Saratoga Oaks is a 1 3/16-mile turf race.

When a horse shows superior form at the distance and surface, why go against her? In some races, it makes no sense to play against the favorite.

But I'm always willing to offer some alternatives. 

At first glance, Olendon shows good European form with a second in the Prix Saint Alaray (G1) in France. But on closer inspection, the winner, Siyarafina, returned to finish sixth in the Prix de Diane (G1), signaling a weak field. 

Olendon backed this theory up when she shipped to North America for the Belmont Oaks. She settled into a good position in fourth on the inside for the initial stages but ultimately came up empty when the running began.

Cambier Parc did bother her at the top of the stretch, but the trouble did not appear significant.  

Olendon remained on this soil and joined Chad Brown’s barn. She needs to prove she is capable of better under Brown before trusting her.  

Trainer Aiden O’Brien ships Happen after a sixth-place finish in the Coronation Stakes (G1) at Ascot. She never threatened at any point, as she ran last early on and only made a mild move toward the end.  

Happen's win in the Athasi Stakes (G3) is questionable, too, as runner-up Dan’s Dream later ran last in The Duke of Cambridge Stakes (G2).

The only way Happen wins is if she responds to Lasix and improves by a few lengths. That is not the most trustworthy scenario to bet on, but she does at least appear more talented than her stablemate in this race. 

O’Brien’s other entrant, Coral Beach, brings poor form on both continents with a seventh in the Belmont Oaks and fifth in the Estate Stakes at The Curragh. But if bettors want to give a pass for the Belmont Oaks, the rank Newspaperofrecord bothered her and Cambier Parc on the backside.

Coral Beach needs to post a good race at some point to be considered. She lacks a Top 3 finish in all five starts this year.     

Kelsey’s Cross finished 5 ¼ lengths behind Cambier Parc in the Wonder Again Stakes (G3) and followed it up with a close third in the Martha Washington Stakes at Gulfstream. The winner, Zarina, previously finished fourth in an optional claimer, while the runner-up Red Rounder had run last in the Bourbonette Oaks (G3), making Kelsey's Cross' overall class low.

Her Royal Highness finished second in the Open Mind Stakes at Monmouth. Before that, she closed for fourth in the Boiling Spring Stakes. 

Her Royal Highness’ late kick is powerful one to watch, and she did lose to an undefeated filly in Valiance. Notice all the ground Her Royal Highness gobbled up in a short time. 

Will that translate to beating Concrete Rose at a longer distance? It is not implausible, but not one in which to put a lot of faith. Earlier in the year, she finished seventh in the Florida Oaks, 2 ¼ lengths behind Concrete Rose.  

The Saratoga Oaks lacks pace to set up Her Royal Highness. It might also negatively affect Happen and Coral Beach as closers.

In contrast, the pace plays into Concrete Rose’s hooves as she possesses tactical speed. TimeformUS'  Pace Projector expects her in front, although it uses the “No Speed” designation to indicate none of these six fillies truly want the early lead.

But for those who want a B or C in their pick 4 tickets, then based on the analysis above, Happen and Her Royal Highness are usable.

As for a vertical ticket, look for a different race. The only way to play this vertically is if Concrete Rose is thrown out of the exotics. Otherwise the final payoff for an exacta or trifecta won't amount to enough.

In all likelihood, Concrete Rose will give the newly created “Turf Tiara” a boost by heading into the Jockey Club Oaks at Belmont with the first two legs won. With the amount of good racing Saratoga, there are easier races to attack.