Analysis: This closer can end losing streak in Mr. Prospector

Even though the Grade 3, $100,000 Mr. Prospector Stakes at Gulfstream on Saturday lacks any current standouts, it brings together a competitive seven-horse field. Bettors can make a case for a couple of these runners.   

On paper, there is enough pace to give the closers a fair chance.

The most obvious speed horse is Wind of Change, who secured an uncontested lead through a fast pace in last year’s edition of this race before fading to fourth. Notable names finished ahead of him that day, including proven graded-stakes horses in Sleepy Eyes Todd, Firenze Fire and Mind Control.  

In seven starts this year, Wind of Change has won only one race. Ironically, his lone 2021 came in the Mr. Prospector Stakes at Monmouth on May 29. Wind of Change is capable of slipping away if he gets lucky, but there are challenges on paper for him in the early stages. 

Wind of Change’s two pace opponents in this edition of the Mr. Prospector might end up being Poppy’s Pride and Doc Amster. In three of Poppy’s Pride’s four wins, he secured the lead by the opening quarter. Doc Amster secured the lead in the opening quarter in four of his five lifetime wins.

It is unclear whether a speed duel could happen between those three horses, as most jockeys avoid such a scenario. If the three of them do not contest the pace together, either Poppy’s Pride or Doc Amster should end up taking the difficult role of pressing Wind of Change. If that happens, they might steer the pace toward fast or slightly fast.

Flap Jack and Dennis’ Moment are supposed to settle right behind the leaders, while Endorsed is more probable to settle in mid-pack or farther.

Of those three names, Endorsed gives bettors the best chance.

In his three starts and three losses since September for his new trainer Michael Maker, Endorsed has competed against quality sprinters.  

Three starts ago in the Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes at Churchill Downs on Sept. 18, Endorsed made a nice closing bid against a slow pace to lose by only 3/4 of a length to Just Might, who is a consistent sprinter.

Watch as Endorsed swept outside horses on the turn.

Endorsed ran out of ground before he could catch Just Might.

In Just Might’s most recent start, he won the $150k Thanksgiving Classic Stakes at Fair Grounds.

Two starts ago, Endorsed closed for fourth in the Phoenix Stakes (G2) at Keeneland. Even though Endorsed lost by 5 1/4 lengths, he finished behind familiar names in Special Reserve, Aloha West and Mucho. In his next start, Aloha West posted a mild upset in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Del Mar.

More recently, Endorsed made another closing bid to finish third by half a length in an allowance optional claiming race at Churchill Downs on Nov. 17. Sir Alfred James took advantage of an uncontested lead through moderate fractions in that race to prevail by a head at the wire.

Endorsed has been running against good horses in his last three starts and not receiving ideal setups. If none of the speed horses scratch in this spot, he could receive a fair setup this time against slightly weaker company.

Also notice how Endorsed finished well ahead of Dennis’ Moment in the Louisville Thoroughbred Society. While Dennis’ Moment has possibly improved since then, based on his optional claiming win at Keeneland, he still remains too popular value-wise because of his 2-year-old form.

Flap Jack could not outfinish Dennis’ Moment at Keeneland with no real excuse and also carries a nine-race losing streak. Although Flap Jack is capable of running decent races with good speed figures on dirt, on paper he lacks the killer instinct, with only two career wins.    

Endorsed shows an even longer 14-race losing streak, but Maker has had this horse for only three starts. Perhaps he can figure out how to put the final piece together and get Endorsed back in the winner’s circle for his fifth win.

Endorsed is the top selection and a reasonable win bet at 5-2 or higher.

In multi-race wagers, consider both Endorsed and Wind of Change in case the latter horse unexpectedly slips away on the lead and sets moderate to slow fractions.

Top selection: No. 4 Endorsed

Contender: No. 2 Wind of Change