Analysis: Clairiere has caught up to Malathaat this year

Last year, Clairiere competed at a high level as one of the top 3-year-old dirt fillies in the nation. But she always felt a step below Malathaat, the eventual Eclipse Award winner who won three Grade 1 races, including the Kentucky Oaks. On paper and visually, Malathaat ran better races than Clairiere.   

In contrast to last year, the gap between Clairiere and Malathaat seems gone, at least for now. Clairiere has improved in her recent starts.

For example, it came across as a good sign when Clairiere made a successful return at Fair Grounds off a 130-day layoff in March by crushing an optional claiming field by 6 1/2 lengths. She won under her own power with a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which matched her second highest speed figure on that brand at the time.

In her second start off the layoff, Clairiere took on Letruska in the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) at Oaklawn. Letruska won over Clairiere by 1 1/4 lengths, but Clairiere did not turn in a bad effort at all, considering the pace scenario. Letruska had secured an uncontested lead through moderate fractions of 23.77 awxonsa, 47.26 and 1:11.30 for the 1 1/16 miles. Clairiere still had a chance to catch Letruska, but the comfortable lead allowed Letruska to reserve enough energy to keep Clairiere and Ce Ce at bay in the stretch. 

For her runner-up effort, Clairiere still received a 118 on TimeformUS. The 118 replaced Clairiere’s previous 115s as her second highest speed figure.

Clairiere then won the Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) Saturday at Belmont by a head over Malathaat. Forget about the speed figure. The notable part is that Clairiere and Malathaat both made their rallies together on the far turn and into the stretch after Letruska and Search Results got caught up in an old-fashioned speed duel early in the race.

Malathaat had every chance to win, but Clairiere kept matching Malathaat throughout the stretch run and eventually had the advantage toward the wire to pick her second Grade 1 win.

At this point, what is the difference between Clairiere and Malathaat? Both fillies earned a 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure for their Ogden Phipps efforts.

When Malathaat made her season debut in the Doubledogdare (G3) at Keeneland in April, she did not give a good visual impression. Jockey John Velazquez had to use the whip left-handed in the stretch multiple times to straighten Malathaat, and finally she started to gain an advantage on the field near the wire.

To Malathaat’s credit, she won by 3/4 of a length over Bonny South. But the 115 on TimeformUS for the return win only matched Clairiere’s return figure.

In fact, none of Malathaat’s figures on TimeformUS stand out relative to Clairiere. Malathaat posted three 116s in a row last year when she won the Kentucky Oaks, finished second in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and won the Alabama Stakes (G1). Malathaat then earned a 123 on TimeformUS after closing for third in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Del Mar following a suicidal early pace, but she beat Clairiere by only a head, and Clairiere earned a matching 123 TimeformUS figure.

On current accomplishments, Malathaat is still ahead of Clairiere as the reigning 3-year-old filly champion with three Grade 1 wins on her resume. Remember, though, that Clairiere won the Cotillion Stakes (G1) last year in addition to the Ogden Phipps win over Malathaat a few days ago. Clairiere is now only one Grade 1 win behind Malathaat. 

Malathaat was the better 3-year-old filly in terms of race record and proved that numerous times in 2021, but this is a new year. Sometimes horses who needed more time to develop as a 3-year-old start to move forward in the next season and catch up as a 4-year-old colt or filly.

By the end of this year, maybe Clairiere will prove better than Malathaat. At a minimum, she looks ready to become a top star who can pick up more Grade 1 races beyond the Ogden Phipps and Cotillion Stakes.