Letruska could be ripe for an upset in Apple Blossom

Letruska goes for a second win in the Grade 1, $1 million Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn on Saturday. Last year, the speedy mare was the blog selection and paid a decent $8.80 to win as the third public choice at 3-1. 

One year later, and Letruska stands on top of the older dirt routing female division. Since the breakout Apple Blossom victory over Monomoy Girl, Letruska's only poor finish came in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Del Mar in November, where she folded to 10th. But that lone off-the-board finish in 2021 came with a valid pace collapse excuse.

Three scenarios are possible in this Apple Blossom Handicap. Letruska is the most probable winner and deserves her role as the heavy favorite, but there is some slight wiggle room for another entry to win this race. 

In the first scenario, Letruska secures a comfortable lead as expected and coasts through moderate opening fractions in the 24- and 48-second range while running uncontested. Then, she opens up on the far turn to build an insurmountable lead before gliding to the wire first without urging.

Most fans would love to see the first scenario happen. But at likely odds of 3-5 or 4-5, Letruska would not make for a profitable wager. 

As for the second scenario, Letruska might face pressure and get softened up through the early stages but then win anyway. On paper, Miss Imperial and Ce Ce own enough speed to stay within striking distance, and one or both of them could get sent to keep Letruska busy.

Letruska has been battle-tested before. In this race last year, Letruska had to deal with Swiss Skydiver and Monomoy Girl chasing her on the backside. Yet Letruska still fought off Monomoy Girl in the stretch run.

Given that Letruska handled better runners last year in this race, she is supposed to handle Miss Imperial and Ce Ce on the front end. With that said, Letruska is now a 6-year-old mare and not getting any younger. 

In the third scenario, Letruska faces a surprising amount of pressure from Miss Imperial or Ce Ce. One of them gets sent on a "suicide mission" to make sure Letruska does not coast up front alone, and the race sets up for the improving closer Clairiere to upset the mare.

Clairiere made her return in a March 16 Fair Grounds optional claiming race, and she opened up to win by 6 1/2 lengths without trying at all. 

Easy wins often are exaggerated. But from watching the replay, it seems Joel Rosario needed only to point Clairiere in the right direction before she dominated those fillies under her own power.

For the return win, Clairiere earned a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and Letruska earned a 117 for winning her return race in the Royal Delta Stakes (G3) on Feb. 26 at Gulfstream. Clairiere is only two points away from Letruska on TimeformUS, if accounting only for their return races this year, and she might improve further as a 4-year-old filly. 

Is Clairiere the most likely winner of the Apple Blossom? No. Can Clairiere post a mild upset with the right pace scenario and trip? Yes.

Perhaps Clairiere establishes herself as the “now” horse by capturing the Apple Blossom. Given she is only 4 years old, the sky is the limit.

If Clairiere does not fire a winning race, then expect Letruska to win again. Letruska’s ascension to the top last year was an unexpected story, but from a fan standpoint, her career has been great to watch.

If betting Clairiere to win, demand at least 3-1 or higher. Clairiere’s listed morning line odds of 5-2 feel a bit too low to get very excited about a win wager. The morning line could end up being wrong. In today’s racing world, it seems track oddsmakers often mess up. 

For multi-race wagers, use both Letruska and Clairiere.

Win: 3 (at 3-1 or higher)