Analysis: Is Churchill's track showing a bias for Breeders' Cup?

When Breeders’ Cup Saturday arrives at Churchill Downs, many bettors will scramble to notice any track bias shown throughout the one-week old meet. As a word of caution, though, track maintenance can change the bias by working on the track, especially now that the rain has stopped.

Think about this question – when it rains most of the week, when is the maintenance crew most likely to work on the track? The team likely waits for a break in the weather, which is now. Breeders’ Cup Day 1 did not feature rain, and Day 2 is unlikely to offer any either.  

In any case, here is a quick overview of how the Churchill dirt and turf courses played leading up to the Breeders’ Cup.

Sunday, Oct. 28

Over fast dirt and good turf, speed horses won the first two dirt races and first turf race, but the trend evened out as the day went on. Counter Offer, a 19-1 stalker on turf, won Race 7. Also, the 28-1 Roiland on dirt from sixth in Race 9, ending any notion of a bias.

TimeformUS coded the day in white as well, which means neutral.

Wednesday, Oct. 31

This time, horses ran over a sloppy dirt course with no turf races. The charts do not favor a running style, though, as winners came from the front and as far back as sixth. In addition, TimeformUS coded the day in white again, indicating no clear bias.

Thursday, Nov. 1

Like on Wednesday, Churchill Downs did not hold any turf races on Thursday. The track went listed as sloppy again thanks to the wet weather. At least three different wire-to-wire winners won, including Southernperfection in Race 2, Chaps in Race 4 and Treetop Flyer in Race 10, but no real bias occurred. In Race 7, Flying the Flag came from sixth, and in Race 8, Knights Key came from ninth, proving a fair racetrack.

Friday, Nov. 2

Once again, there is no clear bias. The day started off with four dirt races, with the closer Dutch Parrot winning from sixth. Then the front-runner Jack Van Berg took Race 2 in a wire-to-wire score. Afterwards, Casino Star stalked from close range in Race 3, and Improbable took the Street Sense Stakes for Bob Baffert from sixth-place.

The Breeders’ Cup sequence started with Race 5.

In the Juvenile Turf Sprint, Bulletin went led them from start to finish, as did Newspaperofrecord did one race later in a powerful Juvenile Turf Fillies performance. Both horses displayed talented on paper, so they did not necessarily show a bias.  

Wesley Ward, who trains the Juvenile Turf Sprint runner-up Chelsea Cloisters, complained about the soft turf afterward by saying, “We knew going in that the turf would be really … soft and it was but there is nothing you can do about that.”

Those comments are interesting considering the track upgraded the turf course to “good,” supposedly signaling it tried up slightly. Maybe the turf was softer than labeled and affected the closers because it prevented them from gaining the right traction late.

After Newspaperofrecord, Line of Duty took the Juvenile Turf in an awkward fashion. The European invader raced in a stalking position and switched out for the win while bumping into Uncle Benny late. Yet, he broke the trend of front-running turf wins. 

Finally, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Game Winner won from an outside stalking position, while the runner-up Knicks Go pressed the pacesetter closely.

Right now, there is no discernible dirt bias.

However, as stated above, the maintenance crew can change the neutrality by accident through scraping or anything else they do when working the courses.

As for the turf course, it should dry out more Saturday and possibly help a few more closers. Opry in the Juvenile Turf seemed like the one most affected by the wet course Friday, as he also spun his wheels in the Pilgrim Stakes (G3) in his final prep race.

Which turf stalker/closer on Day 2 may benefit the most from a dryer course? 

Magic Wand in the Filly & Mare Turf ran one of the most impressive turf races of the year in the Ribblesdale Stakes (G2) at Royal Ascot. One race before that in her record, she spun her wheels in the Investec Oaks and finished fourth by 11 lengths on soft turf.

In conclusion, a turf “bias” is unlikely Saturday. If the turf course is still soft, though, it might hurt a few closers on grass due to the difficulty in grabbing the surface. 

In any case, bettors cannot worry about bias too much unless it looks extremely obvious (as it did at Del Mar when the outside became strong on both days). Adjusting bets on the fly is difficult, and it is almost better to skip races.

With that said, keep an eye on the first few races should anything obvious develop.