Analysis: Choose Southwest Stakes shippers over locals
As I often like to mention, bunched-up finishes in dirt racing generally signal a slower race, while a strung-out field suggests a stronger winning performance. How a set of horses is spaced in terms of margins tips off handicappers to the race’s speed without figures.
In an era when speed figures are constantly questioned by fans, it helps to know an alternative measuring stick. With that point in mind, note that six of 11 horses in Monday's Grade 3, $500,000 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park come out of the Jan. 25 Smarty Jones Stakes.
In that race won by Gray Attempt, the first five horses were separated by a cramped 2 1/4 lengths, and the field was separated by 12 3/4 lengths overall.
It is worth watching the replay to understand how close they finished together.
To recap, Gray Attempt broke beautifully from the outside. He took command of the lead and went through reasonable opening fractions of 23.12 and 46.86.
Long Range Toddy and Boldor ran right behind Gray Attempt. Six Shooter settled mid-pack, while Bankit and Super Steed were farther back.
On the far turn, Long Range Toddy attempted to slip through the rail, and Bolder came outside. But neither horse could pass Gray Attempt in the short stretch. Six Shooter also loomed behind, but he spun his wheels and only closed mildly for fourth, hanging late.
Yet, as pointed out, Six Shooter only lost by a small margin. Did he run well, or did none of the Smarty Jones runners perform to expectations? If they all ran well, then who is the right choice moving forward? Not every 3-year-old horse can become a star this time of year.
Because of the clustered finish, it becomes difficult to distinguish between Gray Attempt and the other horses in the field. Even though the Graydar colt earned a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure, it feels more logical to avoid the Smarty Jones runners on top and side with the Southwest shippers.
There are two outsiders coming from Gulfstream Park, Cutting Humor and Olympic Runner, and there is a Santa Anita invader named Sueno.
Admittedly, Olympic Runner only won a maiden and did not run super-fast on the TimeformUS scale, earning a modest 106. But that number is competitive here.
Furthermore, he won easily in a race taken off the turf.
Critics can point to the sloppy track and speed bias. The pedigree does not indicate fast dirt will pose a problem, though, as his underneath family relates to 2008 Kentucky Derby runner-up Eight Belles. As for the card’s speed bias, it probably helped him.
Regardless, Olympic Runner broke 100 and comes from another circuit, two important factors in the Southwest for this lightly raced gelding.
If Olympic Runner clears from the outside post adequately for trainer Mark Casse, he will make his presence known in this race. If not, a bright future still awaits.
Cutting Humor drew much better than Olympic Runner in the third slot, and he shows a recent second-place finish to Bourbon War, a promising horse on the Derby trail.
Looking back in his record, Cutting Humor also finished a distant third in a Keeneland maiden race behind Plus Que Parfait and Harvey Wallbanger.
In all of Cutting Humor’s races, he displayed the ability to rate too.
The main negative is trainer Todd Pletcher, who kills value because of his name recognition. For casual players who only bet on horses once in a while, who are the three trainers he or she is likely to bet blind without handicapping? Pletcher ranks up there.
Plus, Cutting Humor’s top TimeformUS Speed Figure is a 105, which means he needs a step forward like Olympic Runner. But against this field, it will not take a huge leap.
Next is Sueno, the Sham Stakes (G3) runner-up at Santa Anita behind the proven stakes horse Gunmetal Gray. For his effort there, Sueno only earned a 102.
The Sham looked like a crowded turf race as well with a bunch of horses finishing together. But noticeably, every horse from the Sham improved his number next time. Gunmetal Gray went from a 101 to 105 in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). Even Coliseum earned a 97 in the Sham and a 107 when third in the San Vicente Stakes (G2).
Trainer Keith Desormeaux knows how to find success at Oaklawn having won this race just last year with My Boy Jack, while his Sonneteer ran second in the 2017 Rebel Stakes.
The only real knock against Sueno is pedigree, which looks sprint-ish. Sometimes horses overcome their blood, as even Sonneteer's pedigree looked short-winded.
Which Smarty Jones horses are usable underneath? Put Gray Attempt, Long Range Toddy, Boldor, Six Shooter, Bankit and Super Steed into a hat and see which ones come up. That may sound ridiculous, but it serves to show how most of them are one and the same.
From a more serious standpoint, perhaps eliminate Super Steed, a horse who possibly wants to sprint, and consider the other five runners for underneath slots. That cuts one.
There are two other horses in this race to discuss.
Ninth Street comes from Delta Downs. He failed to beat Six Shooter in the Big Drama Stakes over there, and that horse is not even in the Top 4 of my selections. Even though Steve Asmussen trains, it feels like the connections are taking a wild shot.
In contrast, there is also Jersey Agenda, who actually does possess some ability.
The son of Jersey Town earned a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure winning a local optional claimer. He also broke his maiden at Churchill Downs by four lengths.
The big knock against Jersey Agenda is his speedy running style, which clashes with Gray Attempt and the outside horse Olympic Runner. For what it is worth, the Pace Projector puts Jersey Agenda square on the lead, with Gray Attempt following closely.
If Gray Attempt scratches for any reason, then move Jersey Agenda up.
Otherwise, the race runs through the outsiders. Olympic Runner, Cutting Humor and Sueno earn the A designations from this blog, and it's complicated from there.
With the amount of questions that need answering from both outsiders and locals, maybe it is not the most attractive betting race for vertical wagers. If wagering, the new blood feels like the proper way to go.