Analysis: Louisiana Derby's the time to bet Chestertown

Wells Bayou, Chestertown and Shake Some Action were my main contenders last weekend upon first glance at Saturday's Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby. Given Fair Grounds' early draws, there's always time to further define those choices.

Fourteen 3-year-old horses will compete at the extended distance of 1 3/16 miles, making it a unique contest compared to the nine-furlong prep races.  After pondering the race further, Chestertown looks like the one to upgrade. This Tapit colt runs like a long-winded router who will love the distance.

Chestertown debuted on Oct. 4 in a Belmont Park maiden sprint restricted to New York-breds. While a six-furlong sprint may sound like the ideal spot for the son of Artemis Agrotera, he did not show any of his dam's precociousness or flashy brilliance, running evenly for third. He never got closer than 2 ½ lengths, nor did he fall farther than three lengths.

Horses that run the same tempo are likely to stretch out successfully.

In his next start in a Dec. 1 maiden race at Aqueduct, Chestertown tried a one-turn mile and broke his maiden by 2 ¾ lengths going against state-breds again. To be clear, he did not win in an impressive manner as Irad Ortiz Jr. had to go to the stick. He also earned a slow 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

But the longer distance helped Chestertown break his maiden, and he moved well toward the finish line indicating the desire to go longer.

From there, connections opted to send Chestertown to Fair Grounds with trainer Steve Asmussen's main winter string rather than remain in New York. He stretched out again, this time taking on more open company in a local Jan. 18 allowance optional claimer 1 1/16 miles; Chestertown ran third by 5 ¼ lengths. However, he also faced some fast horses in Blackberry Wine and Digital. Despite finishing third, Chestertown improved his speed figure on TimeformUS to a 103, showing ascending numbers.

Chestertown's three middle pace figures for the Jan. 18 race were 102, 102 and 101, followed by a raw final 103 figure. He failed to accelerate along with Blackberry Wine and Digital, but he never actually stopped, either.

On Feb. 15, Chestertown stretched out to nine furlongs in another local optional claimer, and this time he ran his career-best race, even if second.

Stuck in eighth and last behind a crowded pack, Ricardo Santana Jr. had to wrangle back Chestertown through crawling fractions of 25.50 and 50.24.

Approaching the far turn, Chestertown began to move up. But he became stuck again once he reached fifth in between horses and behind the leaders Ranaan and Winning Impression. As Chestertown waited, Shake Some Action began to roll up on the outside and take dead aim at the leaders.

Shake Some Action took advantage of the clear path and met Winning Impression at the top of the stretch, putting his nose in front after a short battle. But Chestertown had to keep waiting behind his stablemate.

In mid-stretch, Unthrottled finally gave Chestertown some room. Chestertown accelerated with a strong move and almost caught Shake Some Action late, only losing by a neck. He did switch to his wrong lead as he rallied, but that part is forgivable considering his other problems.

When considering the amount of waiting time, Chestertown ran the best race.

For the runner-up effort, Chestertown received a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure. But comparing that number to the 103 received two back is tricky because of the extreme pace scenario and trip presented in his more recent race. Those factors affect the final time.

Notice that Chestertown still earned a raw TimeformUS figure of 104, his career-best number if not adjusted down. For what it is worth, his pace figures also kept gradually rising in the race (52, 72, 85 and 96).

Chestertown now stretches to 1 3/16 miles, which is perfect given he always finishes strong. With the right trip, he could take the next step forward.

A $2 million auction purchase, Chestertown started as the favorite in all his previous races. But in this tougher spot, he is almost guaranteed to go off at a higher price, which makes this a good time to play him from a value standpoint.

While Chestertown's 15-1 morning line is not realistic, he might offer 8-1 to 10-1.

In addition, John Velazquez hops aboard. Some handicappers might see Velazquez as an upgrade over Santana Jr., although the change means Santana chose to ride Chestertown's stablemate Silver State.

Is Chestertown too slow to win, even with another step forward? That is possible. But if some in this field regress at the longer distance and he keeps coming, Chestertown can upset.