Analysis: Pletcher's Charge It is worthy of the hype

After Emmanuel’s mild fourth-place finish in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream last month, horse players might feel hesitant to latch onto another hyped Todd Pletcher-trained colt on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Now Pletcher has another one attracting a ton of attention: Charge It, who is an expected starter in the Florida Derby (G1) on April 2.

Looking at the facts, there is reason to believe Charge It can break through with a Grade 1 race on the Derby trail in only his third career start. Using TimeformUS Speed Figures, he is already ahead of Emmanuel’s numbers after two starts. As shown in his first start, Charge It also can handle a fast pace while battling another foe, and he shows off the right pedigree to handle nine furlongs.

In his Jan. 8 career debut at Gulfstream, Charge It contested the lead with Volcanic through lively fractions of 23.68 seconds, 46.13 and 1:10.58.

Charge It barely lost to Volcanic in the stretch by a neck in the one-mile battle, with another 12 1/2 lengths back to the third-place Touch Code.

The long gap to the third-place horse is a great sign. Talented 3-year-olds are supposed to separate themselves from the average ones at this point.

Volcanic had three races under his belt before the hard-fought maiden win, while Charge It needed to rely on his raw talent to battle him.

For the runner-up effort, Charge It earned a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which put him in the same mix with other 3-year-olds who won prep races at the time. Only a few weeks earlier, Epicenter captured the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds with a 109 on TimeformUS. On New Year’s Day, Newgrange took the Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita with a 109. 

Emmanuel had earned a 98 on TimeformUS for breaking his maiden on Dec. 11 at first asking at Gulfstream by 6 3/4 lengths against the same Touch Code at the same one-mile distance.

In Charge It’s next start on Feb. 12 at Gulfstream, he tried another one-mile race and dominated his opponents by 8 1/2 lengths. His stablemate Enough Already moved into second, while Touch Code ended up third.

Charge It crossed the wire full of run under Luis Saez.

Enough Already was ridden hard by jockey Emisael Jaramillo to pass Touch Code for second, while Charge It never broke a sweat.

For the maiden win, Charge It earned a 109 on TimeformUS, which was knocked down from a raw 114 because of the slow middle fractions.

Only a week earlier, White Abarrio won the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) with a 106, while Early Voting took the key Withers Stakes (G2) with a 109.

Emmanuel made his second start in an optional claiming race on Jan. 30 at Tampa Bay and won by 4 1/2 lengths with a 98 on TimeformUS. Because of the slow fractions, the final speed figure was knocked down from a raw figure of 107, which is still below Charge It's second race.

By mid-February, Charge It had two TimeformUS figures higher than his stablemate Emmanuel and within the same realm as recent trail winners White Abarrio and Early Voting.

Given the fractions and Volcanic breathing down his neck in his career debut, Charge It can handle a fast pace and still fight late. If anything, the hard battle in his career debut benefited Charge It more than his easy maiden romp in February, as it gives him experience to draw on.

As for the stretchout to nine furlongs, Charge It should handle the extra footing as a son of Tapit out of the Indian Charlie mare I’ll Take Charge.

I’ll Take Charge is part of a great dam line. She is a half-sister to 2013 Travers Stakes (G1) winner Will Take Charge, Take Charge Indy and As Time Goes By. Those are great names to see when assessing nine-furlong or longer potential, even with Indian Charlie as the damsire.

Questioning the hype when it comes to Pletcher 3-year-olds is always a good practice as sometimes they can disappoint bettors, but Charge It looks like the real deal after two starts. Even though the attention will hurt Charge It’s value and might even result in him starting as the favorite in the Florida Derby, it will be hard to dismiss his chances.