Analysis: Cave Rock hits checkmarks in Del Mar Futurity

Cave Rock won the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity in impressive fashion Sunday, and interesting discussion points are whether this colt hit all the checkmarks in his win and whether he could continue to progress as a star in the Bob Baffert barn as the distances increase.

First, here is a short recap of Cave Rock’s trip in general.

From the inside, Cave Rock went to the lead under jockey Juan Hernandez. He took light pressure from his stablemate Havnameltdown, although Mike Smith made sure to keep Havnameltdown a little wide on purpose in order not to engage.

The notable part about the early stages were the fractions. Cave Rock began with a 21.56-second first quarter before blitzing the half-mile in 43.65 seconds. Even though the track was playing fast, in the four other dirt sprints earlier on the card, none of the leaders went faster than 44 and change.

Cave Rock and Havnameltdown began to separate from the field on the turn, with Cave Rock maintaining his slight advantage over his stablemate. Then in mid-stretch, Cave Rock began to draw clear from his stablemate under steady urging with some crop use from Hernandez to win by 5 1/4 lengths.

Are there sizable margins between each finisher? Besides the 5 1/4 lengths to Havnameltdown, another 4 1/4 lengths came between Havnameltdown and the closing third-place finisher Skinner. After Skinner came one length to the fourth-place Newgate.

As explained before, spaced-out margins indicate a fast race because the slower horses cannot keep up with the ones separating themselves in front. The final margins are spaced out in the Futurity, at least between the first three finishers in the race. Those margins compliment Cave Rock’s winning effort.

Cave Rock finished the seven furlongs in 1:20.99.

Now for some shorter checkmarks. Did Cave Rock earn a high speed figure? With a 98 Beyer Speed Figure and 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure, Cave Rock posted strong figures on both brands for a 2-year-old in September.

Did Cave Rock win in an easy manner? He needed urging to put away his stablemate Havnameltdown, but some urging is fine considering Havnameltdown won the local Best Pal Stakes (G3) in his previous start.

Did Cave Rock switch leads? Yes. Once Cave Rock entered the stretch run and straightened out, he switched leads like a professional with no problem.

From studying the margins, did Cave Rock indicate he wants to run longer? Most horses who cannot run farther shorten their lead toward the wire, especially after a 43-and-change half-mile. But Cave Rock ended the race in a strong manner by increasing his margin to 5 1/4 lengths over his stablemate. From noticing the increasing margin and watching how he moves, Cave Rock wants to route.

Unfortunately for other male 2-year-old stakes horses, Cave Rock seems like a legitimate star in the making. At a minimum, Cave Rock should find himself as part of the top mix of his category through the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. As a son of late-developing Arrogate, it would not come as a surprise to see Cave Rock continue to progress through next spring and become a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender.

Arrogate himself did not blossom until later in his 3-year-old season, and most of his initial progeny followed Arrogate’s footsteps as slower developers, which makes Cave Rock’s fast start as a 2-year-old impressive. If Cave Rock is this good right now as a son of Arrogate, how good will he become next year when he develops even more? 

The Derby talk is too soon, but Cave Rock is a talented and rising star who hit all the right checkmarks in his Del Mar Futurity win. Of course, he still needs to prove himself as a router, and it stinks from a betting standpoint to take short odds in a route on a favorite who lacks that kind of win. 

Nevertheless, Cave Rock will prove hard to beat next time.