Rail draw's not a Breeders' Cup deal breaker for Catalina Cruiser
As often stated, the No. 1 post hurts a speed horse whenever legitimate pace types are drawn outside. Once those outside horses move in, it means less breathing room and more stress for the inside runner.
But for Catalina Cruiser in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Sprint on Saturday at Santa Anita Park, the inside draw isn't a deal breaker. Because he doesn't own the type of speed to set the pace, he won't take on added pressure.
TimeformUS' Pace Projector puts Shancelot, Mitole and Imperial Hint 1-2-3 early in the race. Matera Sky is not listed up there, but in all likelihood, he will join them in a battle for the lead.
Timeform then shows a projected gap from the leading group to a mid-pack trio Firenze Fire, Engage and finally Catalina Cruiser in sixth.
Plus, Catalina Cruiser's running lines support the idea he will not need the lead to contend.
In the 6 ½-furlong True North Stakes (G2) to open his season at Belmont Park, Catalina Cruiser broke slow from the inside and initially didn't keep up with the speed. But he managed to secure a stalking position and rallied late to win.
Two races later, Catalina Cruiser broke better in the seven-furlong Pat O'Brien Stakes (G2) at Del Mar. But he was out-sprinted to the front by American Anthem, Jalen Journey and Chief Cicatriz before passing them.
Two years ago, this relatively lightly raced horse made his career debut in a local six-furlong sprint. From sixth early, Catalina Cruiser made a nice move to win by 2 ¼ lengths.
It is understood Catalina Cruiser is not the fastest horse on figures, as his numbers on TimeformUS are lower compared to last year. But this horse loves to win, as evidenced by his seven victories from eight career starts.
He's won all three of his starts in 2019, including a repeat in the San Diego Handicap (G2) around two turns. Until he loses, you can't really call him out of form.
As long as Catalina Cruiser starts as the third betting choice or higher -- and that looks likely in a field led by Mitole -- he appears a good play as a stalker in behind the main speed. But if his odds dip into the 3-1 range or lower, that's getting too low considering the field's depth.
Bettors searching for a double-digit longshot should notice Firenze Fire.
In his most recent start, Firenze Fire ran a great race in the Vosburgh Stakes (G1) at Belmont, only losing by a nose to Imperial Hint.
His earlier summer races did not reach that level, as he turned in a fifth-place finish at 4-1 in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1), a fourth at 3-1 in the Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) and a runner-up finish by three lengths in the Forego Stakes (G1) at 6-1. He kept losing at single-digit odds.
But Firenze Fire could have used a few races to round back into form. A dead rail also affected his run in the Forego too, offering a real excuse.
Also, Firenze Fire worked five furlongs last week in 1:00.80 at Belmont.
The time is important because trainer Jason Servis rarely works his horses fast, including the naturally speedy 3-year-old star Maximum Security. Most of Firenze Fire's works are four-furlong spins in 50 seconds or slower, or five furlongs in 1:02 and change.
Time is not the most important factor in workouts. But the unusually fast time only shows Servis is cranking up Firenze Fire for the Breeders' Cup.
The main question is whether Firenze Fire can transfer his Belmont form to Santa Anita and its soft dirt course. If so, then the race sets for him.
Of course, we have to mention Mitole.
Most handicappers do not need a long essay on this likely Eclipse Award winner. Obviously, he won five of six starts this year, including the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3), Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), Met Mile and the Forego.
Mitole's lone 2019 defeat Vanderbilt. But as with Firenze Fire, the dead Saratoga rail affected his overall effort as he faded to third, 7 ½ lengths behind.
Also, Mitole is training fantastic leading up to the Breeders' Cup. Here is Mitole's most-recent work, a blowout days out from the Sprint. He moved under his own power the entire way.
Unfortunately, Mitole will take significant pressure as the inside speed from Post 4 because Shancelot and Matera Sky are drawn outside him.
But it is possible a classy horse such as Mitole can endure the early heat and hold off the closers. In a perfect scenario, he would let Shancelot and Matera Sky go and find a way to switch outside of those two speedballs.
If a fourth horse is added on your tickets, Imperial Hint is the one. But it is tough to swallow a low price on him when Firenze Fire only lost to him last time by a nose. Imperial Hint also lacks the same sort of results outside of New York as he'd need to win the Breeders' Cup.
In the end, Catalina Cruiser is preferred because of his value and ability to stalk, even if it's from the rail, while Firenze Fire and Mitole are usable alongside him.