Analysis: Can Taiba win the Kentucky Derby off two starts?

Defying common standards, Taiba won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby in his second career start last weekend with no prior stakes or route experience.

With his spot secure, Taiba is expected to point toward the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs for trainer Tim Yakteen, who also trains the Santa Anita Derby runner-up Messier. Can Taiba overcome his lack of seasoning to win?

First of all, remember that Bob Baffert-trained horses tend to overcome common handicapping rules or trends. In 2018, Justify broke the Apollo curse by making his first start as a 3-year-old in February and going on to capture the Kentucky Derby, as well as the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

Of course, Taiba was transferred to Yakteen before the Santa Anita Derby. But all of his training before the transfer came from Baffert. Furthermore, Yakteen used to work for Baffert as an assistant, which means he knows something about Baffert’s routines for his horses.

When analyzing Taiba, most handicappers will look at Yakteen’s name in the past performances and not expect any difference.

In other words, yes, Taiba can overcome his lack of seasoning to win the Kentucky Derby. His early training came from a two-time Triple Crown winner in Baffert, who led Justify to a Derby victory off only three starts.

But Taiba needs to draw a good post and use his speed. By coming from Baffert's barn, at least Taiba likely possesses enough speed to clear the field. Most Baffert-trained horses know how to use speed to secure a good position. If Mike Smith rides him, that's a plus too.

For many Kentucky Derby runners, the hard part about the race is not necessarily the 1 1/4-mile distance or the louder atmosphere. The challenge is navigating through a 20-horse field, as bumping constantly with other horses or waiting for room at multiple points could discourage young horses.

Justify took up the pressing position next to Promises Fulfilled in his winning effort in 2018, and that position ensured he would avoid the chaos of mid-pack.

If Taiba can break well and clear most of the field as Justify did, he can avoid the nightmare of being treated like a pinball in mid-pack.

Justify broke from Post 7. Ideally, Taiba will draw anywhere from Post 5 through 18, as any of those post positions will give Taiba the best chance of using his early speed to secure an upfront position while avoiding trouble.

From there, Taiba only needs to rely on his natural talents to battle any of runners up front with him and hold off the stalkers and closers late.

For winning the Santa Anita Derby, Taiba earned a 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 102 Beyer Speed Figure. Relative to this crop, those are great numbers. At that performance level and with a clean trip, Taiba can break the normal rules and overcome his lack of seasoning to win the Derby.

Another question, though, is whether people should bet on Taiba, and that is an entirely different discussion. Horse players need to decide whether it is fair to eat single-digit odds on a horse with so little experience, even if he did capture the Santa Anita Derby in his second start.

Again, even without Baffert’s name on the past performances as the trainer, most bettors will look at Tim Yakteen and consider his presence the same. Bettors need to accept a "Baffert tax" when betting on Taiba. 

In that sense, betting on Taiba is a hard decision. Value bettors do not want to chase low odds on an inexperienced colt with other factors affecting his popularity, and the connection to Baffert will not help his value. On the other hand, Baffert gave Taiba the training to overcome his inexperience. 

Taiba’s odds feel short at the moment given the hype. However, the probable odds can change overnight and social media hype can change. Plus, Baffert or Baffert-related horses can defy common handicapping logic. If he draws a good enough post, Taiba might deserve a closer look before dismissing him.