Analysis: Can Slow Down Andy handle 9 furlongs in Risen Star?

Because of Messier’s 15-length romp in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita on Sunday, Slow Down Andy also has gained attention as the horse who beat Messier in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) two months ago.

As the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Feb. 19 draws near, one interesting question is whether Slow Down Andy can handle nine furlongs. When looking through his overall pedigree, there are some holes that hint at the miler label. Then again, some good horses outrun their bloodlines and find success at longer distances. 

The first negative sign in Slow Down Andy's family is the damsire Square Eddie. Although Square Eddie won the 2008 Breeders’ Futurity (G1) early in his career, he has been known as a sprinter-miler influence in breeding.

In addition, Slow Down Andy’s dam Edwina E is a full sister to Rinse and Repeat, a successful sprinter who competed in both the claiming and allowance ranks and won $296,132 overall. All six of his wins in 46 starts came in sprints.

Furthermore, Slow Down Andy’s full brother Team Merchants has not fared well in longer routes. Two of his three wins came in dirt sprints, and his third win was earned in the one-mile Let It Ride Stakes on turf last November. Slow Down Andy’s two nine-furlong attempts in the Oklahoma Derby (G3) and Hollywood Derby (G1) resulted in sharp fades in the stretch run.

On the positive side, Slow Down Andy’s sire Nyquist won the 2016 Kentucky Derby. While Nyquist has not been known as a stamina-oriented sire at this point, he shows only three crops to date. As time goes on and more of his progeny experiment at longer route distances, they could start winning longer races.  

Another point in Slow Down Andy’s pedigree is in his dam line, which traces to Northern Fable, the third dam of multiple Grade 1-winning router Bernardini. Winner of the Preakness Stakes in 2006 and two other Grade 1s, Bernardini ended his season with an exciting runner-up finish to Invasor in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Maybe the dam-line connection to Bernardini is too far back to make a real difference, but it remains worth noting for those who read the overall pedigree.

Pedigree is sometimes overrated as a prediction of how far horses can run. There is widespread disagreement on how to study pedigree, too. Some handicappers only look at the sire and dismiss further research. Other pedigree analysts still use the antiquated Dosage Index system.

From a visual standpoint, Slow Down Andy looks like he can handle nine furlongs. At 1 1/16 miles in the Los Alamitos Futurity, Slow Down Andy beat the Bob Baffert-trained Messier fairly by one length. He gave the impression of a horse with more in the tank. 

Slow Down Andy's odd antics in the stretch only hurt him a little. His raw talent put him over the top to defeat the stakes-proven Messier. 

Given how strong Slow Down Andy performed in his Los Alamitos victory, it does not make sense to think he cannot handle nine furlongs. Good horses with distance limitations tend to hang late, but he did not stall in the lane. Instead, he finished off the job. Even though it took Slow Down Andy a second to straighten out, he defeated his rival. 

Not only did Slow Down Andy prevail, he also switched leads correctly at the top of the stretch. Even though there were later flaws from Slow Down Andy in mid-stretch, such as when he tried to lug into Messier and tilt his head to the right, a proper lead switch is important because it lessens fatigue and gives a better chance at longer routes.

Slow Down Andy’s pedigree is not the most stamina-oriented in the world, but there is enough in his blood to trust him moving forward. Plus, Slow Down Andy’s exciting win over Messier in the Los Alamitos Futurity indicates he should handle 1 1/18 miles, at least. He was not hanging late. Rather, he just had some odds quirks in the stretch.   

In other words, Slow Down Andy has a good chance at handling the nine furlongs in the Risen Star, or even longer if he makes the Kentucky Derby.

As horses race more and gain experience at various distances, course configurations and surfaces, pedigree matters less and less. If Slow Down Andy finishes well in the Risen Star, which means no stalling or hanging when taking aim at the leader, then expect no problems with his handling 10 furlongs, either.