Analysis: Can Nest win the Travers based on figures?

On Saturday, Nest won the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga by a dominating margin with speed figures that could compete with males. In fact, she already raced against Grade 1 males not long ago when finishing second in the Belmont Stakes to her stablemate Mo Donegal.  

Yet, when the topic of Nest trying the Travers Stakes (G1) against 3-year-old males came up, there was pushback among fans. Why?

One of strangest parts about the American racing community is the pushback against fillies competing against males on dirt. On turf, few people will notice if a filly or mare takes the occasional shot against males. In Europe, no one even bats an eye when a good filly tries open company. But whenever a filly points toward a big dirt race on this soil, there is plenty of debate over whether it is the right move.

Nest dominated the CCA Oaks fillies with a 12 1/4-length winning margin over the Kentucky Oaks champion Secret Oath. A few months ago, Nest ran second to Secret Oath with no excuse in the Kentucky Oaks. In their latest matchup, though, the two fillies seemed to run on different levels.

She completed the nine furlongs in 1:51.04, which resulted in a 104 Beyer Speed Figure and a huge 130 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The latter number, which includes a pace adjustment because of the fast pace, is the second-highest TimeformUS figure by any 3-year-old. 

In all likelihood, Nest’s connections will point toward the Alabama Stakes (G1) against fillies on Aug. 20 in a quest to lock up the Eclipse Award for best 3-year-old filly. If she dominates her peers again, maybe the connections can run against males again down the road. 

Hypothetically, what if Nest did compete in the Travers? The race is run one week later on Aug. 27 and offers a $1.25 million purse, as opposed to “only” $600,000 for the fillies in the Alabama. Could Next win the Travers?

Based on the 130 on TimeformUS, Nest is capable of winning the Travers. Speed figures are not perfect, but at a minimum, they provide a starting point for the discussion before handicapping the other details.

The expected early presence of Early Voting and Epicenter in the Travers would give any other speed horse a hard time if they attempt to join them. But Nest runs most of her races with a stalking style. In the CCA Oaks, Irad Ortiz Jr. likely became aggressive with Nest early because of the short field and the uncertainty of whether the pace would be slow.

Ironically, Nest ended up leading the field through fast fractions after Society threw in the towel on the rail. 

In this hypothetical Travers race, perhaps Early Voting and Epicenter burn each other out. Nest can sit about two to four lengths off those two runners and wait for the right moment to strike on the far turn. Even if they go a bit fast early, Nest already handled a fast pace in the CCA Oaks. 

If Nest can take the lead from those two, she then would worry about Zandon, Cyberknife and her stablemate Charge It, who also is developing nicely after getting lost in the Kentucky Derby stampede.

Cyberknife earned only a 123 on TimeformUS when he won the Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth last weekend. He is not fast enough.

Zandon might step forward with a career-best performance. While he earned only a 119 when he won the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), followed by a 118 when third in the Kentucky Derby, trainer Chad Brown skipped the rest of the Triple Crown with Zandon and opted to point for the Travers.

The real threat is possibly Charge It. When Charge It won the Dwyer Stakes (G3) at Belmont on July 2, he won by 23 lengths and earned an incredible 133 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The performance effectively erased any bad memory of his 17th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby.

Charge It’s effort did not come out of nowhere. In the spring, he ran second in the Florida Derby (G1), albeit while running green late.

Regardless, Nest is a major contender if she enters the Travers, even if Charge It is entered as well. If Charge It finds the distance or the step up in class too much, then the 133 will not matter.

Obviously, Nest’s chances to win the Alabama are higher as she already dominated fillies in the CCA Oaks. If Nest’s owners want to tackle history in the Travers instead, that also is a valid option.

At a minimum, Nest probably can finish in the top 3 against males again if the connections gave the Travers Stakes a chance. Trainer Todd Pletcher knows how to prepare fillies to run big races against males.

Maybe the right time for Nest's next attempt against males is later in the fall or even in a prestigious post-Breeders’ Cup race such as the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) in January.

This blog is the last place in the world to find a writer who cares whether females beat males. Although almost every racing fan cried when Zenyatta lost to Blame in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic, this author had a smile.

But from an unbiased standpoint, there is no reason fillies cannot run against males if the evidence on paper says they belong. The point of the post is that based on speed figures and a great stalking style, Nest belongs in the Travers Stakes and could make history with some luck.