Analysis: Can Express Train handle the Big ’Cap distance?

Express Train makes his next start in the Grade 1, $650,000 Santa Anita Handicap on Saturday. While the son of Union Rags enters the historic race in sharp form for trainer John Shirreffs after two straight wins, he does show one noticeable flaw in his 0-for-3 record at 1 1/4 miles.

Is Express Train vulnerable at 1 1/4 miles? Although his runner-up effort in this race last year shows he can still run well, the distance is not ideal.

Last year, Express Train made a gradual move on the final turn to run alongside Tizamagician and take a short lead by the top of the stretch. All signs pointed to Express Train finishing off the race with a strong win. 

Instead of opening up on the field, though, Express Train maintained only a slim margin over Independence Hall, Tizamagician and Maxfield.

Express Train’s slim lead in mid-stretch made him a sitting duck for Idol.

When horses do not want run a distance, either they fade in the worst cases or hang around while failing to follow through with a winning move. In this case, Express Train took the lead at the top of the stretch and then his momentum stalled. Independence Hall and Maxfield did not move forward either, probably because of the same distance limitations. 

But on the far outside, Idol had one last closing punch and caught Express Train. Perhaps Express Train could improve in his next outing at 1 1/4 miles.

Only a few months later, Express Train took a shot at the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1), also held at Santa Anita ever since the closure of Hollywood Park.

On the far turn, Express Train began to make another move on the outside, but this time Country Grammer and Royal Ship were in front.

Country Grammer and Royal Ship put on an exciting stretch battle for the win, while Express Train fought with Rushie for third. Both Express Train and Rushie were gradually losing ground to Country Grammer and Royal Ship.

Express Train beat Rushie for third by only half a length in the Hollywood Gold Cup. Rushie was known as a miler who had won the 2020 Pat Day Mile (G2) as his career highlight. His connections tried to experiment with Rushie at 1 1/4 miles in the Hollywood Gold Cup, and the effort took something out of him as he lost form afterwards. 

As for Express Train, he went on to capture the San Diego Handicap (G2) at 1 1/16 miles before attempting the Pacific Classic (G1) at 1 1/4 miles again.

In the Pacific Classic, Express Train could offer no run from mid-pack, despite the efforts of Juan Hernandez to urge him on the far turn.

Perhaps this effort was a clunker.

Whether he threw a clunker or not, Express Train lost ground at each call and ended up sixth by 10 3/4 lengths behind Tripoli. At least Express Train almost won the Santa Anita Handicap and had reached contention in the Hollywood Gold Cup on the far turn. His Pacific Classic effort looks disappointing all around.

As stated above, it does not seem like Express Train wants 1 1/4 miles.

With that said, he enters this week’s Santa Anita Handicap in excellent form after winning the San Antonio Stakes (G2) over a top horse in Hot Rod Charlie and the San Pasqual Stakes (G2) by a clear 3 1/4 lengths last month.

Plus, Express Train almost won this race last year. Sometimes good horses with seasoning can win at distances longer than their ideal distance. At this point, Express Train is a seasoned veteran with 16 races under his belt as a 5-year-old horse. 

Also, the pedigree is on his side as a son of Union Rags out of a Mineshaft mare, although pedigree analysis is never an exact science. 

If Express Train’s odds fall too short, remember his 0-for-3 record at 1 1/4 miles and take a longer look at some of the other contenders. At higher odds, though, supporters can look back at his second last year.