Analysis: Can Anothertwistafate, Somelikeithotbrown handle dirt?

Successful 3-year-old horses on synthetic are always a tough read on the Derby trail, as it becomes hard to separate a good Tapeta or Polytrack performance from actual evidence the horse might handle 1 1/4 miles on dirt. While Animal Kingdom took the turf and synthetic route with success in 2011, it has not happened since then.

Animal Kingdom was a rare case, too, as he never tried dirt before the first Saturday in May. 

Most horses display at least one or two dirt races that tip off the handicapper to the runner’s ability to handle dirt against the best horses in his crop. If trying dirt did not work out before, usually there is a clear excuse for why it failed.

For horses with no dirt starts or excused ones, pedigree then becomes a factor, one I'll examine when it comes to two 2019 Kentucky Derby trail candidates with recent synthetic wins.

Both Anothertwistafate and Somelikeithotbrown scored impressively last weekend. They also have something in common: a prior loss on dirt.

Anothertwistafate captured the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields with a dazzling performance, leading the field wire to wire and drawing clear by seven lengths. In synthetic and turf racing, seven lengths is a gigantic number.

On the TimeformUS scale, Anothertwistafate earned a 111 for the win, which is a nice progression from the 100 and 98 from his previous two wins at Golden Gate.

But Anothertwistafate also earned a low 74 on dirt when finishing ninth in his debut race at Santa Anita. Can handicappers excuse it? 

The race itself is ugly. Anothertwistafate showed some speed for the first half, before dropping back on the far turn and struggling home in the stretch run.  

But there are two excuses to point out for Anothertwistafate in that specific race.

First outs always get a pass, as many great horses over time flopped in their career debuts, including Rags to Riches and Rachel Alexandra. Sometimes connections use them simply as a learning experience.

Also, Anothertwistafate’s dirt race came in a sprint, and it is possible he did not appreciate the shorter distance. When true route horses compete in sprints, they cannot keep up with the faster pace, especially when they accelerate on the turn.

For an example, look at Dullahan’s first two career races in 2011, when he tried dirt sprints at Churchill Downs and lost ground on the turn in both races. After experimenting with turf and winning the synthetic Breeders’ Futurity (G1), Dullahan tried dirt again in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and actually made up 3 1/2 lengths for fourth.  

Considering how slow his dirt sprints looked on paper, Dullahan ran well. 

The following year, Dullahan finished a closing third in the Kentucky Derby to I’ll Have Another and Bodemeister. The longer distance and fast pace helped him.

In Anothertwistafate’s case, he also lost contact with the field on the turn. But his overall pedigree is not good for dirt, at least not on the dam side.

The dam Imprecation only made four starts, and they all came on turf in Europe. Also, the second dam Media Nox made all eight starts on turf, with six of them in Europe.

Media Nox produced a number of horses besides Imprecation, including a talented filly by Storm Cat named Nebraska Tornado, who made nine out of 10 starts in Europe. She won important races such as the 2003 Prix de Diane Hermes-French Oaks (G1) and Prix de Moulin de Longchamp (G1) three months later against open company.

To finish her career in 2004, she attempted the Breeders’ Cup Distaff on dirt at Lone Star Park and faded to a disappointing eighth at 7-1 after pressing the leader.

Another notable Imprecation sibling is Burning Sun, who made all 18 starts on turf, with 11 of them in Europe. His most notable win came in the 2002 Prix Eugene Adam (G2). Burning Sun was not a successful runner in North America, although he did finish fourth in the 2004 Turf Classic Stakes (G1) at Churchill Downs in one of his better tries.

The point is, most of the damside consists of turf runners.

Obviously, Anothertwistafate’s late sire, Scat Daddy, produced Triple Crown champion Justify. If including his damside, the overall pedigree does not look great for dirt.

As with Anothertwistafate, Somelikeithotbrown lost contact with the field in his career debut in an off-the-turf race at Saratoga. Not only did he run at a sprint distance, but he ran over a sloppy track as well, giving him one more excuse for fading to seventh.

Given it was his first start and the sprint distance, he gets a pass for the effort.

Somelikeithotbrown then broke his maiden by eight lengths in a turf route. He moved to graded turf stakes company soon, finishing second in both the With Anticipation Stakes (G3) at Saratoga and Pilgrim Stakes (G3) at Belmont, and third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf after setting a fast pace over the yielding course. He looks great on grass.

His return came last Friday in the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park on Polytrack, and he did not disappoint bettors with a clear win by over three lengths. He only earned a 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure, but that is fine for his first 2019 start off a short break.

As for his pedigree, Somelikeithotbrown’s dam Marilyn Monroan made eight career starts, and seven of them came on turf. She ran a non-threatening sixth in her lone dirt attempt, but she was not a talented racehorse, which makes the effort forgivable.

Finding a successful horse in the immediate family took more effort, as none of Marilyn Monroan’s siblings found any notable success on the racetrack.

Going back one more generation to the second dam Summer Scene, she is a half-sister to Stevie Wonderboy, the 2005 Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion. That big name alone gives Somelikeithotbrown an important boost.

Furthermore, the fourth dam Mystical Mood won the 1981 Schuylerville Stakes (G3) at Saratoga and finished second in the Frizette Stakes (G1) at Belmont over dirt. 

It is not usual for me to look four generations deep in pedigree handicapping. Analyzing the immediate family is better, but the lack of initial clues warranted it.

Of course, Somelikeithotbrown’s sire Big Brown captured the 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness before flopping in the Belmont Stakes in a controversial effort. But despite his success on dirt, most consider Big Brown’s pedigree turf-oriented.

Yet, Somelikeithotbrown’s pedigree potential for handling dirt routes feels more promising than Anothertwistafate, as the damside hints that dirt is not a problem.

Perhaps time will prove me wrong. It sounds like Somelikeithotbrown will race on synthetic again in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). Anothertwistafate’s schedule is less clear, but hopefully the connections find out soon if he can handle the dirt around two turns.

Unlike in past years, both horses might need to make one dirt start before the Kentucky Derby, as the Jeff Ruby only offers 20 qualifying points to its winner and runs March 9, earlier on the calendar than in years past. For handicappers, that is a blessing as it forces the connections to think about dirt prep races and provides some hard evidence of whether they can handle it.