Rebel analysis: Caddo River, Concert Tour hard to separate

Every race on the Kentucky Derby trail brings needed excitement to the sport, but not all of them are “attackable” for bettors looking for value. After analyzing the Grade 2, $1 million Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, it does not look like a super race to unload on for those who support Caddo River or Concert Tour.

If anyone out there likes a horse other than Caddo River or Concert Tour, then yes, the Rebel becomes attractive. But it is hard to argue against either of them. Both horses give the impression of being on another level. 

With two big-margin route wins in tow, including an easy 10-length romp in the Smarty Jones Stakes on this course, Caddo River enters this race in great form. In terms of TimeformUS Speed Figures, Caddo River also shows a 107 and 109 for his past two starts, which are relatively high figures compared with most of the field, although not the highest.

And even though those two speed figures are below Concert Tour’s best numbers, Caddo River owns valuable two-turn experience locally, while Concert Tour makes his two-turn route debut and ships for the first time. 

As long as Caddo River breaks reasonably well and reaches the front or near around the first turn, he is going to prove tough to beat.

On the other hand, Caddo River starts from the rail for the first time, and he could find himself in a box eating more dirt than ideal or lacking room.

To his credit, Caddo River ran behind horses and took dirt on his way to finishing a good second in his career debut at Saratoga last summer. Most notably, in that race he beat Greatest Honour in third by two lengths. Currently, Greatest Honour is one of the top 3-year-olds on the trail.

Assuming Caddo River breaks sharp and reaches the lead, he needs to worry about pressure from Hozier, Get Her Number or Concert Tour. In a duel, the inside horse takes the worst of it because there is less room.

Regardless, it is too hard to ignore Caddo River. He is a talented and exciting colt who is supposed to handle small amounts of adversity. 

Concert Tour brings hype into the Rebel as an undefeated Baffert colt.

The son of Street Sense broke his maiden by 3 1/2 lengths at Santa Anita before taking the San Vicente Stakes (G2) in his second start by half a length over his stablemate Freedom Fighter, who was disappointingly a fading fourth in the Gotham Stakes (G3) in his next start.

For those two races, Concert Tour shows field-high TimeformUS figures of 114 and 111, which puts him ahead of Caddo River twice. But again, not every horse translates their sprint form to routing. Handicapping is not as simple as looking at the highest speed figure and settling on that horse.

As for Concert Tour’s pedigree, the bottom side is not easy to read. The first dam Purse Strings broke her maiden in a six-furlong sprint after 11 previous losses before retiring. Purse Strings’ siblings were not successful.

Based on only the sire names in his family, Concert Tour is supposed to handle 1 1/16 miles, with Street Sense on top and Tapit as the damsire.

Concert Tour also starts from Post 7, giving Joel Rosario the luxury of watching how the inside speed breaks. Rosario can either let the other speed types attack Caddo River or take up the pressing position himself.

If Hozier or Get Her Number weaken Caddo River enough with aggressive tactics, Concert Tour only needs to pick off Caddo River late. Note that in his March 6 workout, Concert Tour began double-digit lengths behind his workmate Dark Prince before passing him in the stretch with ease.

Despite the inexperience, it is hard to ignore Concert Tour as well. Remember that Nadal took the same path for Baffert last year, and he made the step forward and won the Rebel in a great performance.

None of the other horses in this race match those two runners, although Get Her Number, Keepmeinmind and Super Stock are ones to think about using underneath. On paper, this is a matchup between two big names.

As for a straight wager on the Rebel only, that is hard given the low odds on Caddo River and Concert Tour. Caddo River backers might offer a sound argument for a win bet if he goes off at 2-1 or higher, especially considering that his local routing experience is supposed to give an edge.

Concert Tour brings raw talent though and draws better. If Concert Tour ends up as another Baffert monster, no one will see it as a surprise.

Given the high quality of this Rebel card, why not find another race to attack vertically? Caddo River is more appealing by the narrowest of margins, but there is not a ton of upside in avoiding one or the other. Pick 4 and 5 players should use both Caddo River and Concert Tour and move on.