Weekend Plays: By My Standards a near New Orleans Classic lock

Last Friday, $5.80 winner Serengeti Empress took the Azeri Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn, while $10.40 heroine Ce Ce provided the second score in the Beholder Mile (G1) at Santa Anita. Overall, five selections here went 2-2-0. 

With some momentum, along with the uncertainty over which tracks are running, these selections will stick to Fair Grounds, which is likely to operate as normal minus a live audience on Saturday. Aside the Louisiana Derby (G2) and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), the track is also hosting the Grade 2, $400,000 New Orleans Classic.

For By My Standards, the New Orleans Classic marks his second start of the year after a long layoff. He returned in excellent fashion last month and leads off these top picks.

Fair Grounds Race 9: New Orleans Classic (G2)

By My Standards returned in fine fashion locally on Feb. 9. He pressed a slow pace and then drew off under almost no urging to win by six lengths.

Other analysts sometimes exaggerate how easily a horse wins if the margin is big. In this case, there is no embellishment. Saez merely sat on By My Standards with zero whip use as he coasted home under his own power.

For the effort, By My Standards earned a career-best 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure, adjusted down from a raw 122 because of the slow pace. If By My Standards only repeats the 119, he will win. If he steps forward off the 119, he may demolish the field and assert himself as a top older horse.

The stretch out to nine furlongs is not a concern, either, as he won the 2019 Louisiana Derby (G2) on this course and at the distance.

As TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts, expect By My Standards to lay a few lengths off in fourth behind Fearless, Silver Dust and Gun It.

Gun It cannot switch leads, which means he will hang in the stretch.

Fearless earned a 118 in his 8 ½-length Gulfstream optional claiming win. But notice the runner-up Winking At Thedude dropped to a $25,000 claimer next time. It only raises the question of who Fearless beat.

The expected favorite Silver Dust could win with his top effort. Given he crossed the wire first two times in a row, the public will over-bet him.

By My Standards, who may not even favored, is the right choice.

Fair Grounds Race 1: Crescent City Derby

Atta Bouy only owns one win in five starts. That is a concern. But he gets a pass for his last three losses locally.

In his Jan. 11 effort against Louisiana-bred allowance company, Atta Bouy lost by 14 ¾ lengths in his fourth-place finish. However, he also faced the talented No Parole, who blew the field away by 13 ¼ lengths. Take out No Parole from the equation, and he only missed out on a runner-up by 1 ½ lengths.

On Jan. 31 while competing in another Louisiana-bred allowance race, Atta Bouy stretched out to a two-turn route and ran second, only 2 ¾ lengths behind the pacesetting winner Sydster. Notice Sydster took them along an easy uncontested lead through 24.51, 48.77 and 1:13.71 fractions..

As for the Feb. 29 effort under the same conditions, Atta Bouy was bumped multiple times and traveled wide before finishing second by a neck.

Atta Bouy deserves one more shot, and 9/2 odds are fair.

Fair Grounds Race 2: 3-year-old maidens, turf

While there is some concern over rain in the forecast, the showers will probably come later in the afternoon, if at all.

Global Brand only finished sixth in her local career debut in a 5 ½-furlong turf sprint. But there are positive notes to point out about the effort. For one, she made up 5 ¾ lengths throughout the race. She also experienced traffic problems late in the stretch, although the camera made it hard to see.

Look at Global Brand's pedigree. This War Front filly is a daughter of Marketing Mix, a turf star who won multiple Grade 1 stakes routes, including the 2012 Rodeo Drive Stakes and 2013 Gamely Stakes. Marketing Mix also finished second by ¾ of a length in the 2012 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

Global Brand is meant to route, and she gets an opportunity in this one-mile race. With the longer distance, she might even secure a better position.

At 10-1, Global Brand is a great value. Keep an eye on the weather though.

Fair Grounds Race 3: Crescent City Oaks

Saber Cut only has racing experience at Delta Downs, which is normally a red flag at a standard-length racetrack such as this. Also, she only attempted a route once in the Premier Night Starlet Stakes last month.

In that race, she finished a mild third by 7 ½ lengths.

The winner, Steph'sfullofsugar, is the 7/5 favorite here. Before singling her, however,, give Saber Cut's effort in the Premier Night Starlet another look. She lagged toward the back in ninth off 23.90, 49.61 and 1:14.98 fractions, which compromised her chances from a pace standpoint.

Saber Cut actually made a nice move on the final turn. But Steph'sfullofsugar reserved too much energy off the slow pace and won.

On a full-length racetrack, Saber Cut can turn the tables.

Fair Grounds Race 7: 3-year-old maidens

Mystic Guide makes his second career start after finishing a closing third in a local six-furlong sprint on Feb. 15, only losing by 1 ¼ lengths.

Not every late closer is capable of stretching out. It is understood that many handicappers fall into the trap that longer distances will favor closers.

But in this case, the longer 1 1/16-mile distance will help Mystic Guide.

This Ghostzapper colt is a son of Music Note, who won the 2008 Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) back when it ran at 1 ¼ miles, and she won other routes such as the 2008 Mother Goose Stakes (G1), Gazelle Stakes (G1) and 2009 Beldame Stakes (G1).

The 7/2 morning on Mystic Guide is optimistic. But if he stays at those odds, he is a great value in terms of win betting. Expect a strong effort.