Analysis: Breeders' Cup Classic may not favor a running style

Predicting the pace for the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs on Saturday is not difficult. If the race follows its historical trend, the field should run at a moderate to fast clip.

Speed can still win, though. For example, when Fort Larned led from start to finish in 2012, he opened in 23.20 and 46.50. When Bayern did the same in 2014, he opened in 23.12 and 46.44. Those fractions are not a cakewalk for 1 ¼ miles.

Of course, those two front runners caught some luck at the start. Fort Larned's task became easier when fellow front-runner Game On Dude failed to break well, and Bayern eliminated his main opponent Shared Belief at the start. At the same time, no horse can endure a fast pace in the Breeders’ Cup without possessing some quality.

Which speed horses in this year’s Classic can endure a fast pace? If they fold, then which horses can take advantage, and from what pace group do they fall under?

According to TimeformUS Pace Projector, West Coast will set the pace, with Mendelssohn slightly behind and McKinzie taking the pocket position in third. Accelerate is shown as fourth, and the effects of the wide post may hinder him.

In most normal races, all four horses possess enough quality to endure a fast pace and keep fighting. But in this situation, the one toss-out from the win spot is Accelerate because of the wide post, John Sadler’s record in the Breeders’ Cup (zero wins) and the flat-looking final prep race in the Awesome Again Stakes (G1), which he still won.

West Coast looked tired in the Awesome Again stretch run, as did Accelerate, but at least West Coast drew reasonably well in the Classic, and trainer Bob Baffert is not a liability to bettors outside California. As a lightly-raced 4-year-old colt, he can bounce back.

As for Mendelssohn, he has been discussed at length in previous posts. The Beholder sibling endured a wicked pace in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), so it worked as a great preparation for what he will face here. The constant shipping is a concern.

Thunder Snow and Catholic Boy are projected to settle near Accelerate, and the former moved into the teeth of the hot JCGC pace before Discreet Lover rallied to win. To his credit, Thunder Snow ran well enough to pass Mendelssohn for second.

Catholic Boy flanked Mendelssohn in the Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga, before passing his rival on the far turn and drawing clear. The son of More Than Ready is adaptable and can win from anywhere, but he figures to let the true speed go.

Both Thunder Snow and Catholic Boy appear in the driver’s seat, as neither of them need the lead, but they can sit close enough to take first run at the pacesetters. Their final prep races also prove each of them offer enough quality to win this race.

Next on the Pace Projector is Mind Your Biscuits, followed by Pavel to the inside. Those are probably accurate early positions for the two midpack runners.

Mind Your Biscuits won the local Lukas Classic (G3) by more than four lengths with a 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and his class from previous races is clearly evident. The only concern with him is the 1 ¼-mile distance, as all his wins came under one mile.

Pavel is a tough horse to handicap. The 4-year-old son of Creative Cause won the Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) over this same racetrack, but the other main contenders that night (Backyard Heaven, Irish War Cry) got wiped out by the heat. Pavel then lost by a race record 12 1/2 lengths in the Pacific Classic (G1) to the "good" version of Accelerate.

Even with a fast pace, it feels like another horse should beat Pavel for the top spot. Because he will run as a closer though, an underneath placing is still possible because he can switch out in the stretch run and pick off the tired horses late.

The European invader Roaring Lion is likely to fall behind this group, as he runs as a closer overseas. His trainer John Gosden won on the synthetic in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic with Raven’s Pass, the second and most-recent European to win this race.

In the replay shown above, Roaring Lion settled in sixth early out of seven in the Irish Champion Stakes (G1). He closed strongly to beat Saxon Warrior.

But the concern is Roaring Lion’s breeding, which looks turf-oriented on both sides. Kitten’s Joy is the best turf sire in North America, while the second dam Cambiocorsa threw nothing but turf runners, including Alexis Tangier, Bronson, Moulin de Mougin, Schiaparelli, and Roaring Lion’s own dam Vionnet. This is a turf over turf pedigree. 

If Roaring Lion cannot handle the surface, it will not matter where the rider positions him. Maybe rain would help, as turf horses tend to handle sloppy racetracks.

Yoshida, Axelrod and Lone Sailor are projected slightly behind Pavel, and only one of them looks promising enough to actually win the Classic: Axelrod. He finished second to McKinzie in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) with a strong 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure, while Yoshida and Lone Sailor ran below 120 in their final prep races.

Amazingly, Axelrod is 30-1 on the morning line, while Yoshida is 10-1.

Discreet Lover and Gunnevera are supposed to settle second-to-last and last, and both of them will hope for a supersonic pace in which to close.

Thanks to his JCGC win from off the pace, Discreet Lover may attract more attention than he deserves, while Gunnevera ran a slow 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure when second in the Woodward Stakes (G1) to Yoshida. These are underneath-only type horses. 

If Collected somehow gets in, he can help set the table up for them.

A quality horse should win this race regardless of pace. As two Baffert trainees, there is a even a chance West Coast and McKinzie may control the tempo to make sure there is no catastrophic pace collapse, while still going relatively fast.

While the main 3-year-old contenders Catholic Boy, Mendelssohn, McKinzie and Axelrod are still high on my Classic ranking, those who believe in West Coast, Thunder Snow and Mind Your Biscuits will get a fair deal as well. Throwing all those horses in a horizontal wager will get expensive, however, so choose wisely.