Analysis: Bonny South's in with a Fair Grounds Oaks chance

Finite enters Saturday's Grade 2, $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks on as the deserving favorite. With trainer Steve Asmussen and Winchell Thoroughbreds behind her, the Munnings filly has compiled a 7: 5-2-0 record capped off by a last out win in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2).

Now Finite competes at the 1 1/16-mile distance again on the same course. With the exception of Tempers Rising, most of her Rachel Alexandra opponents decided to pass on a rematch. The only question is whether bettors are willing to accept an extremely low price at 3/5.

For a second option, there is another promising daughter of Munnings out of a Tapit dam entered in this race, Bonny South. Brad Cox is the trainer.

Bonny South has only crossed the wire first once in her career. But she broke her maiden locally on Dec. 22 via a delayed disqualification when the Joe Sharp-trained O Seraphina tested positive for an illegal substance.

Bonny South had finished second by four lengths. Regardless of the disqualification, it is noticeable how the field spread out. Besides the four lengths between O Seraphina and Bonny South, three lengths separated Bonny South and Kizzy B, with another 3 ½ lengths lengths to Audrey's Time and 4 ½ lengths between Audrey's Time and Mariposa d'Oro.

A strung-out field indicates a quality race. Overall, 24 ¼ lengths separated the short six-horse field. All factors considered, Bonny South ran a nice race for second.

Bonny South then competed in a Feb. 15 Oaklawn optional claimer at 1 1/16 miles. At first glance, she lagged 14 lengths behind. But the race featured a run-off pacesetter named Perfect Happiness, who opened up by 12 lengths.

None of the other horses took the bait, though. Browsing through the TimeformUS Pace Figures, every other filly except Perfect Happiness decreased their pace figure from the opening quarter to the half-mile point.

For analysis purposes, cross out the run-off filly from the chart. Disregarding Perfect Happiness, Bonny South showed enough early foot to sit two lengths off the second-place filly Fifthatnarraganset, with next out graded winner Shedaresthedevil right up there in third.

Approaching the far turn, Bonny South began to pick off horses, although Shedaresthedevil made the first attack because of her closer position. Shedaresthedevil put away Perfect Happiness at the top of the stretch, but Bonny South took aim outside and kept coming with a sustained bid.

Bonny South caught Shedaresthedevil to win by ¾ of a length.

For the optional claiming victory, Bonny South earned a career best 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Notice her pace figures of 104, 100, 106 and 107 in that race as well. She never ran at a blazing tempo, but she kept going at a high level at every point. In her previous two starts, Bonny South did not crack 100 once in the pace figures or final speed figure.

Also, Shedaresthedevil backed up the race by winning the Honeybee Stakes (G3) in her following start. She beat notable fillies such as Alta's Award and Motu.

Bonny South might need one more small step forward. As a developing filly with only three career starts though, that is possible. She can upset.

As for Finite, she earned a 108 on TimeformUS in her local 4 ¾-length Rachel Alexandra win. Previously, she won the Silverbulletday Stakes by a neck with only a 99, indicating she moved forward by a significant margin in the more recent victory. From last year, Finite also owns wins in the Rags to Riches Stakes and Golden Rod Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs.

Discounting Finite's chances is impossible. But if she merely repeats the 108 or slightly regresses off a big effort while Bonny South moves forward, Bonny South is in for a chance.

One scenario is that Finite wrestles the lead from pace player Stop Shoppin Tammy on the far turn and Bonny South looms on the outside with her move.

The closer Tempers Rising has some class, too, as the third-place finisher in the Silverbulletday and fourth-place horse in the Rachel Alexandra. But her lack of early speed will hurt no matter if she fires her best shot.

Finite and Bonny South are the two horses to rely on in horizontals. Without a doubt, Finite is the best filly on paper. Young 3-year-olds are always liable to move forward though, and Bonny South could take the next step and surprise bettors. At a minimum, she deserves a B spot in tickets.