Weekend Plays: Blame Debbie's the Suncoast Stakes value horse

As a bonus for horse bettors playing the Sam F. Davis (G3) on Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs, the well-stocked undercard contains three other stakes. Here, I'll cover the Suncoast Stakes and Tampa Bay Stakes (G3), as well as other races at Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park.

The Suncoast Stakes morning line lists Comical as the 3-1 favorite and Motu at 7/2, but those two fillies are only mildly talented at best. Instead, Blame Debbie lead off the five selections for Saturday's races below.

Tampa Bay Race 9: Suncoast Stakes

Graham Motion-trained Blame Debbie only finished third in the Demoiselle Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct, losing by 4 ¼ lengths to Lake Avenue. She made a mild move to pass the fading Critical Value, but Maedean out-kicked her for the runner-up spot.

To Blame Debbie's credit, though, Lake Avenue led the field through glacial 24.70 and 50.76 fractions on a speed-biased racetrack. Even though Blame Debbie proved no match, she still ran a 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which is higher than any of Comical's figures and nearly matches the 103 Motu earned when second to Finite in the Golden Rod Stakes (G2).

Furthermore, Blame Debbie owns the tactical speed to sit behind two overmatched pacesetters in Lucrezia and Two Sixty. The cutback in distance from nine furlongs won't be a problem, as Blame Debbie broke her maiden at 1 1/16 miles.

If Blame Debbie is third choice once betting opens, that is a great value.

Tampa Bay Race 10: Tampa Bay Stakes (G3)

According to TimeformUS' Pace Projector, fast fractions are expected with Admiralty Pier, Renaissance Frolic and Real Story contesting the lead.

The late closer Hembree is not a horse who wins often. But he ties for the high late pace TimeformUS rating at 112 and also projects to show enough speed to get into a good position with a 78 early pace rating.

The stretch out is a concern, but Hembree ran well in his few 1 1/16-mile turf starts, and also contested the pace in the 2017 American Derby (G3) going nine furlongs before fading to fifth. Back then, his usual running style involved speed, even at one mile. This is a different horse today.

As long as Hembree reserves his energy early, he can contend at a price.

Aqueduct Race 2: Maiden

After Pure Wow ran a solid third in her July 12 career debut at Saratoga, she disappointed in her next dirt start, finishing fourth by 7 ¼ lengths.

Pure Wow then competed on turf in her next two starts at Belmont and Aqueduct, finishing fifth and ninth. In fairness though, the fifth-place finish came in the Matron Stakes (G3) when she managed to contest the pace. As for the Aqueduct start, she threw in a clunker and went on the shelf.

This seven-furlong maiden race on dirt is not a strong field, with TimeformUS giving these fillies a low class rating of 86. The favorite, Common Courtesy, only ran a 90 TimeformUS Speed Figure in her career debut, and the second choice Halo City shows a modest 92 TimeformUS figure in her recent start after previously earning an 86 and 75.

Pure Wow's two dirt TimeformUS figures are 80 and 85, but those numbers came in July and August. Months later, she is likely capable of better.

At 9/2, Pure Value is the right value to win.

Aqueduct Race 8: Jimmy Winkfield Stakes

While TimeformUS' Pace Projector is a helpful tool, it is not without flaws

For example, look at Montauk Traffic in this race. Pace Projector places him last early, but he showed enough speed to sit only 2 ½ lengths off the lead and earn an initial pace figure of 100 last time in his local Dec. 28 maiden breaker.

In Montauk Traffic's career debut at Laurel, he never tried at any point, finishing last by 48 ¼ lengths. His only pace figure shown is a 4, followed by a raw 26 final figure. The Pace Projector is based on algorithms and probably took the Laurel race into account, giving him a poor early position.

Montauk Traffic finished strong in his maiden score and deserves consideration in this race, especially if his odds are higher than the 2-1 morning line favorite Quixotic.

Gulfstream Race 7: Maiden

Spa City owns a nice pedigree as a son of Street Sense and Sara Louise. Although the latter ran as a quality sprinter in her career, she also produced Sara Street, the runner-up in the 2018 Gazelle Stakes (G2) at nine furlongs. Sara Street only lost by half a length.

In any case, the pedigree is there for Spa City to handle nine furlongs.

As for Spa City's actual record, he shows a mild fifth in his local career debut at six furlongs, followed by a second-place finish to Caracaro in a one-turn mile on Jan. 11. Spa City lost by six lengths, but that is forgivable as Caracaro is likely headed toward a future in stakes company. Spa City did hold off Don Bourbon for second.

The longer distance will put him closer to the pace. Notice that Pace Projector places him fourth right behind Here Comes the Bullet, Telephone Talker and All Eyes West.

At 7/2, Spa City is a fair price to win.