Analysis: Who's suited to upset La Brea favorite Bellafina?

At first glance, Bellafina is a standout in Saturday's Grade 1, $300,000 La Brea Stakes at Santa Anita Park. She recently finished second by ¾ of a length behind likely champion Covfefe in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

Handicapping is not an exact science, though. Perhaps Bellafina fired her best shot in the Breeders' Cup and is due for a regression. If that's the case, there are a couple of fillies who could upset in the La Brea, mainly Bell's the One.

She enters this race off the two best efforts of her career. Off a layoff in September, Bell's the One ran second by eight lengths to Covfefe in the Dogwood Stakes while earning a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure, her best number yet. One month later, she won the Raven Run Stakes (G2) at Keeneland with a 115, her second-best overall figure on the TimeformUS scale.

In the Raven Run, Bell's the One admittedly cut a beautiful path through the traffic before tipping out. But she also did well to put away First Star.

If nothing else, the run shows that Bell's the One has a nice turn of foot.   

The main concern is the Santa Anita dirt surface, as the softer track favored speed or tactical speed types when last seen in the Breeders' Cup. For what it is worth, though, Bell's the One turned in an excellent final work at Santa Anita -- watch it via XBTV -- and track renovations since the fall meet may have it playing faster than when last seen.

Around the turn, Bell's the One was eager to go as the exercise rider applied a subtle hold. The lead switch looked a little awkward. But she gave a great impression overall and only needs some pace to help set up her run.

Notice that top east-coast rider Javier Castellano takes the mount, too.

With Bellafina set to start at even money or less, Bell's the One is a logical alternative to use with the favorite or against her. She is improving.

The next filly to discuss is Mother Mother, who enters this race off a 239-day layoff for trainer Bob Baffert. She is likely to flash outside speed.

Before the layoff, Mother Mother's pace did not serve her well, as she lost ground in the stretch in three out of four starts in 2019. She started off the year in the Santa Ynez Stakes (G2) by fading 8 ½ lengths behind Bellafina after contesting the lead, although she did earn a 108 from TimeformUS.

One race later, she pressed the pace in the Las Virgenes Stakes (G2) and faded to fourth, four lengths behind Bellafina. She earned a 106.

Mother Mother did show promise early in her career last year by running third in the Starlet Stakes (G1) and winning the Rags to Riches at Churchill Downs. Sometimes getting time off helps, and she also gets Joel Rosario on board for this comeback attempt. At a value price, she is usable.

The last contender to discuss is Del Mar May, another filly who showed promise last year. She closed for second against Bellafina in the Sorrento Stakes (G2) at Del Mar before throwing in a clunker the following month by finishing fifth in the two-turn Chandelier Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita, 31 lengths behind Bellafina.

Del Mar May returned this year at Keeneland to break her maiden by four lengths with a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure, then threw in another clunker in the Eight Belles Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs by finishing seventh by 14 ¼ lengths. In fairness, she raced over slop at Churchill.

After another layoff, Del Mar May returned at Del Mar in November to win an optional claiming race by a length with a 99 on TimeformUS.

Despite the low speed figure, there are a couple of positives to note about the effort. Del Mar May closed against slow fractions of 22.82 and 45.93 for the sprint, and typically that leads to a slow figure because of the time lost.

The runner-up, Message, went on to win a Los Alamitos optional claiming race by nine lengths. Also, the fourth-place Into Chocolate had previous graded stakes experience by running third in the Torrey Pines Stakes (G3).

With a step forward, some pace ahead and an unbiased racetrack, Del Mar May can contend. At minimum, she might prove useful underneath.

Bellafina does love Santa Anita, though, with a 5: 4-1-0 record at this venue. If she loses, she will need either a bad trip or a bounce off the Breeders' Cup effort. Bellafina could win or even dominate the La Brea, but she is an expected underlay off the losing streak and will be a single on many multi-race tickets. It's worth taking a shot against.

Bell's the One and Mother Mother fit as "A" contenders alongside Bellafina, or Bs, while Del Mar May is a lower priority contender as a B or C.