Analysis: Bellafina's a worthy Desert Stormer Stakes single

Although the Grade 3, $100,000 Desert Stormer Stakes contains a heavy favorite in Bellafina, her local form is too sharp on paper to play against. The six-furlong contest with eight older fillies and mares is scheduled for Sunday at the reopened Santa Anita Park.

Trained by Simon Callaghan, Bellafina owns an impressive 6: 4-2-0 record on this track. Those two local losses came last year in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint and La Brea Stakes (G1), where she ran against the Eclipse Award winner Covfefe and Hard Not To Love.

Most handicappers can forgive losing to a special talent such as Covfefe. In the La Brea, Bellafina also showed a legitimate excuse.

She went too fast early, reeling off 21.70 and 44.41 fractions on the slower Santa Anita surface with pressure from Mother Mother. Watch how hard Mother Mother pushes Bellafina on the turn as they separated from the field. 

To Bellafina's credit, she kept Mother Mother at bay in midstretch. However, Hard Not To Love took advantage of the situation and mowed both fillies down to win.

For the runner-up effort, Bellafina still earned a huge 128 TimeformUS Speed Figure. In the Breeders' Cup, she earned a 119, which is also a number that can win Sunday's Desert Stormer.

Toss out Bellafina's most recent flop off in Oaklawn Park's Carousel Stakes. She came off a 119-day layoff and simply does not run like the same filly when she travels, with five losses in as many starts outside California. 

Earlier in 2019, Bellafina won the Santa Ynez Stakes (G2), Las Virgenes Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Oaks (G1) on this track. In the Santa Ynez, she defeated Mother Mother by a clear 8 ½ lengths. If the race is local and lacks other major stars, Bellafina runs like a star herself.

Does Bellafina need a longer distance than six furlongs? That's one legitimate question against her Sunday. For what it is worth, she won the 2018 Sorrento Stakes (G2) at six furlongs.

On paper, Bellafina's local form is too consistent. If Bellafina flops in this race on her home track, then the time will come to doubt this filly.

Who is usable underneath?

Mother Mother is an obvious option, but a Bellafina over Mother Mother exacta will pay about $3 for a $1 wager. While that combination might occur, it is not worth betting.

For value, Artistic Diva is a worthy alternative underneath. In February, she contested the pace in the Spring Fever Stakes at Oaklawn with Mt. Brave and Break Even. The pace collapsed, and those three fillies faded to fourth, fifth and sixth in the six-horse field.

Break Even returned to win an Oaklawn optional claimer on April 18 with a 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and Mt. Brave ended up second in the same race. Artistic Diva only earned a 104 in the Spring Fever, but it is plausible she could move up, too.

Other interesting longshots include Amuse and Tomlin.

Amuse gave the impression of a promising filly in 2018 for trainer Richard Mandella. She broke her maiden locally by 5 ¼ lengths with a 111 on TimeformUS and also won a local allowance race two months later with a 109 on TimeformUS to close out her season.

Amuse only ran once in 2019, finishing a dismal eighth in the Las Flores Stakes (G3). Cross the effort out. As a more mature 5-year-old mare, Amuse could move forward and make the exotics payoffs interesting.

Tomlin deserves a mention as the third-place finisher in the Bellafina's Santa Ynez. Later in the year, she also placed third in the Purple Martin Stakes and Miss Preakness Stakes (G3).

In recent times, Tomlin returned to synthetic at Golden Gate Fields. She took an allowance race on March 1 by a nose with only a modest 104 on TimeformUS.

Tomlin is the type of filly that could clunk in for a piece if the pace is fast enough.

Bellafina looks like a worthy single in the late Pick 4 sequence. But if exotics are played, then Artistic Diva, Amuse and Tomlin are some interesting longshot options to help make it more valuable underneath.

Then again, perhaps the Desert Stormer is only one to watch and learn if not used in a multi-race wager. Not every stakes race is a must-play.