Analysis: Avoid betting Chad Brown horses at Ky. Downs

Trainer Chad Brown has been on a cold streak at the Kentucky Downs meet, and there is a simple explanation why. It seems that he either underestimated the level of competition and sent his “B” team to Franklin, or he understood the levels and sent the "B" team anyway.

For example, take a closer inspection at the horses Brown lost with at Kentucky Downs on Sept. 5. Brown started three horses on the card in Forwardly, Running Bee and Beat the Estimates and all three missed the board.

In Forwardly’s case, he finished sixth in an allowance race. Prior to racing at Kentucky Downs, Forwardly also placed sixth and last in an allowance race at Saratoga.

As for Running Bee, he finished a dismal ninth in the Dueling Grounds Derby (G3). In his three starts before the race, Running Bee had only shown a maiden win. Granted, Running Bee did break his maiden by an impressive 3 3/4 lengths in an allowance race at Saratoga before the trip to Kentucky Downs. But moving up to graded stakes level after only a maiden win is never easy for any horse.

In his career debut, Beat the Estimates ended up fifth in the closing race on the Sept. 5 card. The unique course configuration probably came as a surprise for the first-timer, who spent his workouts leading up to his debut at Churchill Downs.

Which horses will Brown start this weekend at Kentucky Downs?

On Saturday, there are five horses from Brown on the card, including Highest Honors in the Grade 2, $1 million Kentucky Turf Cup. Highest Honors had shown potential earlier in his career as a dirt router. His current turf form looks fairly average though. In his past three starts, he closed for fourth in a Keeneland allowance race, finished third in the Louisville Stakes (G3) and finished third as well in the Grand Couturier Stakes at Belmont Park.

Unfortunately for Highest Honors, the Kentucky Turf Cup is not a race with pushovers. This is a "real" Grade 2. The favorite Gufo enters off a win in the Sword Dancer Stakes (G1) at Saratoga and could go into the Breeders’ Cup Turf at Keeneland as one of the legitimate contenders. Also, Arklow is a past Grade 1 winner who loves this odd course having won the Kentucky Turf Cup in both 2018 and 2020. Last year, he was second. Arklow enters in good form off a second in the Bowling Green Stakes (G2).

Then on Sunday, Brown starts Arrobatic in an optional claiming sprint earlier in the card. She enters the race off a win at Ellis Park in a one-mile turf allowance race. Before that effort, she finished an even fifth in a Churchill Downs turf optional claimer at 1 1/16 miles.

Perhaps the cutback to 6 1/2 furlongs can help Arrobatic. But it feels like Brown does not send his best horses to Kentucky Downs. When Brown starts turf horses at Saratoga, Belmont or Aqueduct, in many cases he legitimately enters the best turf horses in the field. At Kentucky Downs though, he sent some odd horses for this meet relative to the class levels.

Perhaps Brown is testing the waters with his weaker horses before taking a more serious run at the meet in future years. Either way, it seems best to avoid betting him if possible this weekend.

Bettors not only take a premium by picking a Brown horse on turf since casual players play the Brown name blindly. But now the horses are a slight step below the proper class level in many cases, or they might not handle the unique course configuration.

For now, Brown horses seem like a bad bet at Kentucky Downs.