Analysis: Aerolithe lacks right value in Pegasus World Cup Turf

Analyzing a mare such as Aerolithe is a challenge for American handicappers. She made all 13 starts in Japan against Grade 1 or Grade 2 foes unfamiliar to most fans over here, making for touch evaluation of her class. 

When Aerolithe starts in the Grade 1, $7 million Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, the first instinct is to notice all those top Japanese races on record and make Aerolithe a top selection based on her proven consistency.  

After all, the morning line lists Aerolithe at 8-1, which is value for a multiple graded stakes winner overseas competing against Americans on turf. Realistically, her odds could dip down to 4-1 or lower facing what's believed to be a weak field.

Assuming Aerolithe does drop to a short price, there are some red flags to point out before accepting that deal.

For one, this is a mare who likes to show speed at distances around one mile to 1 1/8 miles, and this race is slightly longer at 1 3/16 miles with a probable fast pace scenario. The TimeformUS Pace Projector shows a moderate pace lined up with the speedy Fahan Mura leading the way, but it does not include Aerolithe in the algorithm.

As an example of Aerolithe’s speed, two races ago she set a comfortable pace in the 1 1/8-mile Mainichi Okan (G2) in Tokyo before holding on for the win.

She did well in the stretch run to hold off the cavalry charge of horses. But if she hooks up with Fahan Mura early, will she offer enough punch late in the Pegasus?

Better yet, can Aerolithe rate if Fahan Mura goes too fast? Her run in the more recent Mile Championship (G1) suggests not.

Even though Aerolithe broke sharp, notice the horses inside Aerolithe who zoomed to the front. Aerolithe did not seem to accept other horses in front of her, as she made a premature move before the turn and initially led the field into the stretch. 

However, the early charge took something out of Aerolithe, and she faded in the stretch to a disappointing 12th-place finish. Eventual winner Stelvio actually finished a closing second to Aerolithe in the Mainichi Okan, which means the pace in the Mile Championship set up better, and Aerolithe failed to handle the quicker tempo. 

With the above race in mind, it is questionable whether Aerolithe can handle a fast pace in the Pegasus, or rate if the situation calls for it, especially at a longer distance than she is accustomed. Aerolithe only ran farther than nine furlongs once when she attempted 1 1/4 miles in the 2017 Shuka Sho (G1), finishing seventh.  

Furthermore, is Aerolithe’s past competition even that good?

For example, glance at Stelvio’s record before he ran second to Aerolithe in the Mainichi Okan. The 4-year-old colt finished eighth in the Japanese Derby (G1) and fourth in the Satsuka Sho (G1). He did manage to win the Sho Spring Stakes (G2).

Also check out Persian Knight, the Mile Championship third-place finisher. He most recently took a shot at the Hong Kong Mile (G1) and ran a well-beaten fifth.

Keep in mind I'm not arguing for outright dismissal of Aerolithe, but with all the hype behind her as the big foreign invader, it does not make sense to get too excited.

There are logical American options to consider such as Yoshida and Bricks and Mortar, and one other foreign invader in the Aidan O’Brien-trained Magic Wand.

Yoshida is well known by now, as he finished a closing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last November and won the Woodward Stakes (G1) two months earlier.

Those races came on dirt, but he started off last year with a win in the Turf Classic (G1) over the classy Beach Patrol and ran fifth in the Queen Anne (G1) at Royal Ascot. He then finished fifth in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1) at Saratoga when connections said he caught a dirt clod in the eye.

Forget the Fourstardave. If Yoshida runs his best race, he can win. He drew well in Post 2.

Bricks and Mortar makes the jump up in class after taking a local optional claimer over a familiar name in Mr Cub. He obviously needs to move forward in this spot.

But look at his 2017 races. He defeated Yoshida in the Hall of Fame Stakes (G2) at Saratoga before finishing a half-length behind him in two consecutive races, the Saranac (G3) and Hill Prince Stakes (G3). In those races, he found some trouble.

Given his early promise and trainer Chad Brown on the turf, this horse is a threat.

Magic Wand ran an even fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf after pressing the leader A Raving Beauty. Over in Europe, she never looked more impressive than when she won the Ribblesdale Stakes (G2) by four lengths at Royal Ascot.

From the rail position, she will save all the ground in the Pegasus, making her dangerous in the stretch run. The 4-year-old filly can potentially step up for O’Brien.

As for underneath positions, essentially the entire field except Fahan Mura is a threat to complete the exotics, including Channel Maker, Next Shares, Delta Prince, Catapult, and even the Loooch Racing longshot Dubby Dubbie can clunk in for the superfecta.

Fahan Mura is tossout because she does not figure to last on the lead at a longer distance, especially with the Japanese star with Aerolithe breathing down her neck. Either Aerolithe will put her away, or Fahan Mura burns both of them in a duel.

As for the rest, Channel Maker is a slight standout with his TimeformUS Speed Figures, but he was eased in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. What happened? Catapult finished a closing second in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

My main choices are Yoshida and Bricks and Mortar. If the latter stays healthy, he will develop into one of the top American turf stars in training.

The Pegasus World Cup Turf is not an easy race to handicap, however, as foreign invaders are a tricky read. The bottom line on Aerolithe is that she brings a lot of hype and little value into this race, and there are enough attractive alternatives to hesitate relying on her.