Florida Derby: 4 reasons to choose Charge It

Horse players can look forward to a great betting race in the Grade 1, $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream on Saturday. There are sound arguments for each of the main players, including Classic Causeway, Simplification, Charge It and White Abarrio, all sharp winners of their last starts before this race.

Although Charge It is inexperienced, he might offer the most excitement in terms of raw talent and potential out of those four 3-year-old colts.

In his local career debut on Jan. 8, Charge It went to battle with the stakes-experienced Volcanic. The two of them contested the pace early and still fought each other in the stretch, with Volcanic finally prevailing by a neck. Even though Charge It lost by a slim margin, he had an impressive 12 lengths on the third-place finisher Touch Code.

One month later in another one-mile maiden race, Charge It made his second career start. This time, Charge It led the field uncontested through the early stages and then opened up easily for a sparkling 8 1/2-length win.

The son of Tapit gave the appearance of a future star in this win.

Charge It earned a 107 and 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the optional claiming win, placing him in the mix of top figure earners in this race. Given his numbers, Charge It fits as one of the main contenders.

He does not own the speed figure advantage, but those numbers at least establish his ability relative to the other top horses in this race.

There are four good reasons to choose Charge It.

For one, Charge It figures to settle in a great position. Starting from Post 6, he is likely to sit right off Classic Causeway or set the pace if Classic Causeway takes back. Even if the pace becomes contested, Classic Causeway probably will not push suicidal fractions. Charge It can press him and still find enough energy to deal with White Abarrio and Simplification.

The second reason to give Charge It the win is his higher ceiling. Even if the highest TimeformUS figures do not belong to Charge It right now, he is only a few points off Classic Causeway on TimeformUS and might reach a new height in his third start while being prepared to fire his best shot.

Beyer Speed Figure users might find it surprising that Charge It’s 93 for the optional claiming win is higher than all five of Classic Causeway’s Beyers.

As for a third reason to pick him, Charge It sports an excellent pedigree for stretching out to nine furlongs off his two one-mile maiden efforts.

This is a son of Tapit out of the Indian Charlie mare I’ll Take Charge. Tapit has sired multiple Belmont Stakes winners including Tapwrit, Creator and Tonalist, while I’ll Take Charge is a half-sister to 2013 Travers Stakes (G1) winner Will Take Charge, plus Take Charge Indy and As Time Goes By.

For a fourth reason to choose Charge It, watch his last two workouts on XBTV. Charge It has been finishing better than his older stablemates.

He finished a little better toward the end of his work with stablemate Promise Keeper on March 19 and Fearless on March 26. Watch how Promise Keeper was ridden aggressively to keep up with Charge It on the last turn.

Just the fact that trainer Todd Pletcher chooses to pair Charge It with stakes-level older horses for workouts is a great sign.

Even though graded-stakes experience is important in most cases, Charge It catches a field lacking any real superstars. If one 3-year-old from the Pletcher barn emerges as a star this year, Charge It is the most likely one.

At strictly 3-1 or higher, he is a fair win bet. Otherwise, there is nothing wrong with watching the race only without placing a bet.

Charge It is also a single candidate, although it is impossible to see his final odds before betting the pick 4 or 5. Hopefully, the higher prices hit in the earlier legs.

Win: 6 (at 3-1 or higher)