Saudi Cup plays: 4 horses to use under Mandaloun

Fueled by a massive purse, the third edition of the Grade 1, $20 million Saudi Cup at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in Riyadh brings together another strong field, including the defending champion Mishriff and American star Mandaloun.

For horse players in the U.S., the race is not an easy one to handicap or bet because of the amount of unfamiliar international names. While there are always exceptions to this rule, the best dirt horses usually come from North America, while the rest of the world beats Americans in turf racing. 

With that point in mind, the right horse to choose is Mandaloun. Given Mandaloun is one of the leading older dirt routers on soil with room to grow as a young horse, bettors can rely on him to give a top effort.

Arguably, Life Is Good is the No. 1 dirt router in North America. Mandaloun is not far behind him, though, especially with his “recent” Grade 1 win.

In the past few days, Churchill Downs officials promoted Mandaloun to the status of 2021 Kentucky Derby champion after the disqualification of Medina Spirit. In addition, Mandaloun won the Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth Park last July (after Hot Rod Charlie was disqualified) before going on the shelf for the rest of the year.

Mandaloun came back in sharp form last month at Fair Grounds by taking the Louisiana Stakes (G3) by 3/4 of a length over Midnight Bourbon, earning a career-high 129 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process.

The impressive part is that Mandaloun had not run since July. Midnight Bourbon had competed in November in the Clark Stakes (G1).

Most horses improve in their second start off the bench, which means Mandaloun is liable to run another big effort. Only top-tier talent pass 130 on TimeformUS, and he is likely going to add his name soon.

Trainer Brad Cox became familiar with the process of shipping to Saudi Arabia when he sent Knicks Go last year. Although Knicks Go faded to fourth, he went through a tough pace scenario with Charlatan present.

From a tactical standpoint, expect Mandaloun to fall into a nice spot around third or fourth as a stalker. Country Grammer and Midnight Bourbon figure to contest the lead, and if all goes as expected, Mandaloun will get first run when they start to become tired on the turn.

Here are some ideas for the underneath spots in the trifecta.

Do not ignore T O Keynes, who won the Champions Cup (G1) in Japan last December. Although Chuwa Wizard won the 2020 Champions Cup and made no impact in the 2021 Saudi Cup, T O Keynes beat Chuwa Wizard two months ago easily by six lengths with only a mild hand ride in the stretch.  

T O Keynes shows a familiar American name in his sire Sinister Minister, who won the 2006 Blue Grass before fading to 16th in the Kentucky Derby.

Even though Bob Baffert trains him, Country Grammer might not attract a huge amount of attention. But he won the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) at Santa Anita last May over Royal Ship with a 128 TimeformUS Speed Figure.

Baffert does not ship horses overseas unless they are live. If the contested pace is mild enough, Country Grammer can hang around for a piece. If the other jockeys leave him alone, he could even steal the race.

Speaking of hanging around, it seems like Midnight Bourbon only knows how to hang in the stretch and finish second or third. Even though he took an uncontested lead through reasonable fractions in the Louisiana Stakes, he still lost by 3/4 of a length to Mandaloun.

On the positive side, Midnight Bourbon knows how to hit the board against the best horses. While this horse does not own a winning spirit, Midnight Bourbon might last longer than expected as well.

The defending champion Mishriff is unavoidable as another trifecta selection at low odds. He drew well in Post 14, as it will allow him to avoid kickback. Expect him to use his speed to sit behind the leaders.

Mandaloun is not an exciting choice on top as either the favorite or second choice, but he is the right one.

If Mandaloun offers a reasonable win price, a win bet on him could back up the trifecta. Given Mishriff's presence and status as defending champion, Mandaloun should not fall too low in live wagering. 

Win: Mandaloun

Use underneath: Country Grammer, Midnight Bourbon, Mishriff, T O Keynes