Analysis: 4 horses to use under Epicenter in Louisiana Derby
Quietly, Epicenter has built respect among handicappers on the Fair Grounds path to the Kentucky Derby. Off his latest win last month and his strong performances in his last three starts overall, the son of Not This Time enters the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby as the expected favorite.
If bettors are searching for an upset, the Louisiana Derby looks like the wrong race. Epicenter is a step better than this field.
After breaking his maiden last November, Epicenter won the brand new Gun Runner Stakes on this course by 6 1/2 lengths on the day after Christmas. Epicenter took up the presser role against the pacesetting Surfer Dude, which shows that he owns versatility as a speed horse.
The following month, Epicenter lost the Lecomte Stakes (G3) by a head to the closing Call Me Midnight, but he set a deceptively fast pace with notable pressure from Surfer Dude in the first quarter. Considering Surfer Dude ended up last by 31 lengths and Blue Kentucky faded to seventh after stalking the pair closely through the first half-mile, Epicenter did well to shake them off and keep fighting in the lane.
In the Risen Star Stakes (G2) last month, Epicenter set the pace and opened up by 4 1/2 lengths at one point. Smile Happy and Zandon cut down the margin slightly at the end, but Epicenter still won by a clear 2 3/4 lengths over Smile Happy in second, which is a great margin given the high respect Smile Happy still holds among most handicappers.
Epicenter might receive a similar trip to this one in the Louisiana Derby. Without a more aggressive speed horse such as Surfer Dude lined up to hassle him, Epicenter can secure another comfortable lead.
Now for the important speed figures comparison. With the “weight off” function on TimeformUS, Epicenter shows a 113 and 112 in his last two starts. Those two numbers give him the highest two TimeformUS figures. Some handicappers are willing to concede races to the horse with the highest two figures without even thinking about other factors.
Epicenter is the top selection, even at the expected low price. Now the task is to find good horses to use underneath him for a trifecta wheel.
Zozos seems hard to ignore off his 10 1/4-length win in an optional claiming race at Oaklawn for trainer Brad Cox. Although Zozos beat weak horses there in his double-digit romp, he also won a strong Jan. 23 maiden race on this course. From the Jan. 23 race, the runner-up Stay In for Half and third-place Strong Quality won their next starts.
Call Me Midnight might not get the big pace setup to catch Epicenter this time. But he still deserves respect as a closer who can potentially grab a small piece. The public is not likely to overbet Keith Desormeaux-trained horses.
Curly Tail is an interesting long shot to throw in underneath. This regally bred son of Curlin broke his maiden at Oaklawn on Feb. 26 after showing a bit more speed than usual by settling in mid-pack. His dam Take Charge Tressa is a half sister to Take Charge Brandi and full sister to Omaha Beach. Plus, trainer Dallas Stewart is not one to underestimate as he tends to find long-shot closers who can blow up the tote board in major 3-year-old races.
In addition, former Grade 1 winner Rattle N Roll deserves one more chance to make amends after his flat sixth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream. Last fall, Rattle N Roll won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland over Classic Causeway in third. Because the Fountain of Youth effort came off a layoff, Rattle N Roll is liable to move forward in his second start off the bench.
Regardless of who finishes underneath, Epicenter is likely to overwhelm this field. Bettors playing multi-race wagers will want to single him and move on. Expect Epicenter to head to Churchill Downs as a top contender.
Win: 6 (at even or higher)
Trifecta: 6 / 2,3,4,9 / 2,3,4,9